Way Too Early 2024 NFL MVP NFL Betting Odds

The 2023 NFL season wrapped up last week, with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs winning their third title in five years. However, the highest individual honor of the year went to the quarterback of the team who Mahomes and company beat in the AFC Championship Game: the Baltimore Ravens’ Lamar Jackson. Unsurprisingly, both Jackson and Mahomes are top five on the odds table for the 2024 NFL MVP betting markets according to the top NFL betting sites and betting apps.

2024 NFL MVP Way Too Early Betting Odds

All odds provided by Sports Interaction unless otherwise stated.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, +600

It’s pretty easy to see why Mahomes is the odds-on favorite the way he dismantled the rough and tumble AFC on the way to his third Super Bowl in five years. Even though he had a down season individually, he still turned it on when he needed to. And that’s kind of why we don’t love his odds here.

Mahomes, in just six years as a starter, has already reached the “wait until December to ratchet it up” stage of his career with the dominant Chiefs. They seem inevitable now, and with the second-ranked defense in the league, Mahomes didn’t need to do as much anyway. One would think he’d get an improved weapons cache this offseason, but that’s what we said last year.

And what happened? They signed no one, and still won the Super Bowl. Not to mention voter fatigue is likely to become a factor earlier in Mahomes’ career than perhaps anyone else’s. Right now, at +600 odds, the juice is just not worth the squeeze.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, +800

Josh Allen is interesting, because, unlike Mahomes, the NFL media seems like they’re just dying to give this howitzer-armed QB some hardware already! He’s actually the only player to receive 1st-place MVP votes in each of the last two seasons, even if it was just one vote each year.

He’s been top five in MVP voting in three of the last five years, and it seems like they’ve finally figured out a way to reduce the pressure on the big fella with a quality running game. While that might hurt his totals a smidge, it will help his efficiency and it will tamp down on those incomprehensible mistakes when Allen’s Dr. Jekyll turns into Mr. Hyde.

However, there may be trouble in paradise. The Josh Allen-Stefon Diggs connection waned massively during the back half of the season and the playoffs, and if Diggs demands a trade, Allen will be in tough to keep up with the rest of this MVP field without a bonafide WR1. At +800, we’d take his odds before Mahomes, but there’s better value on the board here.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals, +900

Who doesn’t love a good comeback story? Joe Burrow struggled with his health from August to November, when his season was shut down for good with a wrist injury. But it’s just as well, distance makes the heart grow fonder, isn’t that what they say?

Burrow’s Bengals still managed a 9-8 record despite his extended absence and inability to play up to his usual level even when he was under center. Cincy’s 2024 opponent list also makes the mouth water. Apart from the tough AFC North, which will be even tougher next year, the Bengals play only one team that won a playoff game in 2023: the Chiefs.

And if anyone can claim to own Mahomes other than Tom Brady, it’s Joe Burrow, who is 2-0 against K.C. in the regular season and 1-1 in the playoffs. A big win against the Chiefs would do a lot for his MVP candidacy. Not to mention he gets to play five of the worst teams in the league in 2023, including the Patriots, Commanders, and the Panthers. We still don’t love +900 odds, but of the top three, Burrow is definitely the best value bet.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans, +1,100

Not to disrespect C.J. Stroud, but we’re a bit surprised to see him up here in the top five. They even have him with shorter odds than the guy who just won the darn thing one vote short of unanimously. He had a historic rookie season, but come on, that Divisional round loss to the Ravens was not pretty.

The thing that Stroud does have going for him is that he plays in the AFC South, one of the worst divisions in football. The competition is likely to be better in 2024 than it was last year, but it’s still no AFC North. It would also be hard to imagine a player from the Texans winning this award for some reason. Maybe because they’re the newest addition to the league in 2002? Who knows, but we just can’t see it.

Only five players have ever won the NFL MVP in their second season: Jackson, Mahomes, Kurt Warner, Dan Marino, and the great Jim Brown, who actually won it in each of his first two seasons. We just don’t see Stroud quite on their level yet. Seeing the youngster frollicking around NBA All-Star weekend with Amber Rose wasn’t a super-convincing sign either, though you can’t really blame him for enjoying the fruits of his labors. Even at solid +1,100 odds, Ms. Rose should be the only one touching this one.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens, +1,200

One vote short of the first-ever two-time unanimous NFL MVP, and Lamar Jackson still can’t get no respect? 2023 was a great year for Jackson and the Ravens, but the fact that the stars seemingly aligned for them and they still shot themselves in the foot at home in the Conference Championship is a tough pill to swallow.

Jackson is likely to have another MVP-caliber season in 2024, but we’ve only had two back-to-back MVPs since the mid-1990s when Brett Favre won thrice in a row, and there’s only been five back-to-back winners since the first award in 1957. Even if he might deserve it next year, he’s unlikely to get it, so steer clear of Lamar at +1,200—unless he lands himself a big WR fish in free agency. Then, all bets are off. Or, more like, all bets on Jackson are on. 

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers, +1,400

This right here is the one. Justin Herbert has been a top five QB since he entered the league in 2020, but he hasn’t been able to have the team success required to win an award such as NFL MVP. That’s about to change in 2024, because the Chargers brought in the man: Jim Harbaugh.

Harbaugh is the guy who turned Andrew Luck into an elite prospect at Stanford while also turning the program around as whole. He’s the guy who turned Colin Kaepernick into the best dual-threat QB weapon this side of the Mississippi while also turning the 49ers into perennial Super Bowl contenders. He’s the guy that took over a Michigan program in shambles and brought them a National Championship while pushing his QB, J.J. McCarthy to a first-round grade at the NFL draft.

This guy is the QB messiah, the turnaround doctor. Herbert didn’t need much help in the individual department, so if he can just keep doing his thing, Harbaugh will raise the rest of the team from the dead around him like he’s done at every stop in his career. 2024 could very well be the year of Herbert, so get him while he’s hot at +1,400.