US Open Women’s Final: Jessica Pegula vs Aryna Sabalenka betting preview

And then there were two. The US Open women’s final will take place on Saturday, September 7th between American Jessica Pegula and Belarus star Aryna Sabalenka. The start time is TBD. Pegula will have the chance to win a Major on home soil after taking down Karolina Muchova in the semifinals in comeback fashion. As for Sabalenka, she beat young American Emma Navarro in the last four and could win her second Grand Slam of the year here after capturing the Australian Open title at the start of the season.

Head-to-head history

Pegula and Sabalenka have faced off seven times before. Sabalenka has the upper hand, winning five of those matches. She’s also won four of the last five meetings, including a straight-sets victory in the final of the Cincinnati Open before the US Open. They’ve never clashed in New York but did play one another in the French Open in 2020.

Can Pegula get it done?

Currently the No. 6 ranked player in the world, Pegula is in her first-ever Grand Slam final at 30 years old. She’s been in the quarterfinals of the three other Majors but has never made it past that stage. This is new territory for the American. Pegula certainly had her work cut out for her to this point, too.

The Buffalo, NY native beat No. 1 ranked Iga Swiatek in straight sets in the quarterfinals before taking down Muchova, one of the most in-form players on the WTA Tour. Before facing Muchova, Pegula hadn’t dropped a single set at this year’s edition of the US Open. After losing the opening set 6-1 against the Czech, Pegula roared back with 6-4, 6-2 wins. 

Overall, it’s been an impressive season for Pegula. She has compiled a 34-10 record and won two titles at the National Bank Open and the ecotrans Ladies Open in Berlin. By taking out Swiatek, Pegula made it very clear that she’s more than capable of winning her first Major in front of the home fans. But, defeating Sabalenka won’t be easy, who is an extremely powerful player. She’s also lost just one match in Grand Slams in ‘24. Because of that, Pegula is an underdog at tennis betting sites.

Sabalenka is dominating

She’s the world No. 2 for a reason. Sabalenka is having a tremendous campaign, making the final in the last four hardcourt Majors. Sabalenka has never won the US Open but she was in the showpiece a year ago, losing to Coco Gauff. The Belarusian has two career Grand Slam titles, both at the Aussie Open. Sabalenka has also made the semifinals at the very least in seven of the last eight hardcourt Majors.

Sabalenka beat a handful of ranked players en route to the ‘24 final, including Navarro (#13), Qinwen Zheng (#7), Elise Mertens (#33), and Ekaterina Alexandrova (#29). Just like Pegula, she’s only lost one set in the tournament so far. The 26-year-old’s sheer strength and power has been on full display, which proved to be too much for the young Navarro on Thursday.

While Sabalenka had 34 unforced errors, she also had 34 winners compared to just 13 for her opponent. Sabalenka brushed off a late surge from Navarro in the second set to advance to the final for the second consecutive year. She’s now 35-3 in 38 sets at Grand Slams in ‘24. Simply remarkable. That’s why she’s a -295 favorite on Saturday at Sports Interaction.