UFC Vegas 95: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 Main Card Betting Odds & Picks

After an awesome fight night card in Abu Dhabi last week, the UFC returns to Vegas, where we get just one ranked bout as well as three as catchweight due to the inability of some fighters to make weight in time. In the main event, the lower-ranked Serghei Spivac comes in with the shorter UFC betting odds from sports betting sites, but does Marcin Tybura have a chance to earn the upset and move closer to the top 10?

UFC Vegas 95: Tybura vs. Spivac Main Card UFC Betting Odds & Picks

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 8 Marcin Tybura vs. No. 10 Serghei Spivac Heavyweight Fight Betting Odds

In 2020, just before the onset of COVID, Marcin Tybura (25-8) fought Serghei Spivac (16-4) on a preliminary card, with the former picking up a unanimous decision win.

Despite Spivac being 29 to Tybura’s 38 years of age, these two are very similar. They’re both plodders that lack athleticism and like to use grappling to gain an advantage. Neither throws with a ton of volume either, so this one could go longer than one would expect from two top 10 heavyweights.

Spivac was 25 when these two first met, but it seems he hasn’t really added to his arsenal in the interim. He has struggled against guys with Tybura’s strong wrestling base, and has shown that once he’s on his back, he’s not going to be able to scramble out of that position or drop any significant strikes.

Tybura, meanwhile, has continued to impress despite his advanced age. He submitted Tai Tuivasa in his last fight and is 7-2 since beating Spivac the first time. Spivac looked like a world-beater during his three-fight winning streak in 2022-2023, but the way he was pummeled by Ciryl Gane in his last outing gives us pause.

Tybura is the more well-rounded fighter here, so we like him to get the upset (again) at +130 odds. Neither of these guys are known as killer finishers, though, so if you want a little more juice, Tybura at +400 to win via decision could pay out as well.

Damon Jackson vs. Chepe Mariscal Catchweight Bout (149.5) Betting Odds

The co-main event was supposed to be a featherweight bout at 145, but Chepe Mariscal (16-6, 1 NC) missed weight by a whopping 3.5 pounds, making this a catchweight battle against Damon Jackson (23-6-1, 1 NC).

Both of these guys like to grapple, but Jackson is a much better and more technical wrestler—and he’s likely to be the one to try and employ that part of his game early and often. Mariscal is the better striker, but only slightly. Mariscal has picked up some victories over solid competition in the UFC, but none have been overly impressive, as he’s used his will and determination to grind out wins rather than a superior skill set.

Mariscal is a very aggressive fighter who likes to attack his opponent, but with a grizzled veteran like Jackson, who sports a two-inch reach advantage, a four-inch reach advantage in the legs, and a four-inch height advantage, he might be hard-pressed in that regard.

However, those length advantages might not matter; though Mariscal wants to get in close to deliver blows, Jackson also wants to invite that pressure so he can turn it into takedown opportunities.

We believe Jackson will use his experience and patience to get the fiery Mariscal right where he wants him, and tire him out on the ground. Not to mention the fact that Mariscal clearly isn’t in the right headspace considering how badly he missed weight, so we like Jackson as an underdog at +170. A safer bet might be for the fight to go the distance at +100 odds, though.

Danny Barlow vs. Nikolai Veretennikov Catchweight Bout (171.25) Betting Odds

In the third-to-last bout of the evening, we get welterweights Danny Barlow (8-0) and Nikolai Veretennikov (12-4). Veretennikov is the older man by five years, and he also gives up one inch in height and five in reach. The Kazakhstani fighter was a late replacement, which is why this is being fought at catchweight, which already puts him at a disadvantage.

Barlow is undefeated, and for good reason. He’s an up-and-comer at 170, and his striking is crisp and varied. Veretennikov is tough, though, and hasn’t been finished since 2014. Barlow should dominate, but Veretennikov is durable enough to push it to the judges, so we like Barlow to win via decision at +190 here.