UFC Vegas 103: Kape vs. Almabayev Main Events Odds & Best Bets

The UFC heads back to the Apex for a third straight Fight Night as they prepare for the big UFC 313 card next week. The main event was supposed to be a flyweight title eliminator between No. 1 Brandon Royval and No. 6 Manel Kape. However, Royval stepped down with an injury and was replaced by No. 8 Asu Almabayev on short notice.

Almabayev was supposed to be fighting No. 9 Steve Erceg on this same card, so that fight was scuttled, which makes the lineup a little bit light overall. However, Kape vs. Almabayev does present a classic striker vs. wrestler battle, and the co-main event between middleweight brawlers Cody Brundage and Julian Marquez promises to be quick and exciting. Let’s focus on the headliner here, though. Let’s check out the odds and where the value lies for the main event for UFC Vegas 103.

UFC Vegas 103: Manel Kape vs. Asu Almabayev Main & Co-Main Event Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 6 Manel Kape vs. No. 8 Asu Almabayev Flyweight Main Event Bout Betting Odds

Last time out, Manel Kape (20-7) buried Bruno Silva to move up to No. 6 in the flyweight rankings. This was supposed to be his stepping stone to a title shot, but instead, he’ll have to prove himself again. That body kick finish of Silva was filthy; Kape’s rage was bubbling up following multiple shots below the belt from Silva. It was a nice bounce back performance for the Angolan after a snoozefest loss in his previous fight.

Asu Almabayev, meanwhile, has not lost a fight since 2017. He joined the UFC in the summer of 2023, and he’s gone 4-0 since then, with three decision victories and one coming via rear-naked choke. The most recent of these was a decision win over Matheus Nicolau, who is probably the toughest opponent Almabayev has had so far.

And that’s not saying much, because it was Nicolau’s third straight loss, as the Brazilian has fallen out of the top 15. Kape, meanwhile, has fought a lot of the top dogs. He hasn’t always come out with a victory, but he’s always given a good account of himself nonetheless.

Kape lost a split decision to prime Kai Asakura, then came back and knocked him out a year later. He also lost a decision to the current champ, Alexandre Pantoja, and a tight split decision to Nicolau back when the Brazilian was in his prime. Not to mention that resounding win over Silva, who is still ranked No. 13 despite the defeat.

So Kape has the experience advantage. He’s also got a three-inch reach advantage and a two-inch height advantage over Almabayev. The pair are both 31, having been born two months apart.

Almabayev has been a relentless wrestler in the UFC, spamming takedowns like it’s going out of style. He’s averaging over five takedowns per 15 minutes since joining the promotion, which is just nutty. However, a lot of that came against lesser competition. He was only able to land 1/6 takedowns against Nicolau, who has the best takedown defense ever in the flyweight division, at over 90 percent.

Kape is not far behind, sitting eighth in that category at just over 77 percent takedown defense. His long limbs should be able to make Almabayev pay when he shoots—and oh, will he shoot—and on the feet, it’s really no contest. Kape is not only one of the highest volume strikers in the flyweight division, he’s one of the most accurate as well.

We think this striker vs. grappler scenario will result in the striker getting the better of it. Almabayev will get Kape down once or twice, but Kape should be able to keep it on the feet for most of the fight. He will have his way there, which is why we like him to win.

The -210 odds moneyline we’re getting from Canadian betting sites on Kape aren’t ideal, however. Instead we’d suggest going for Kape by decision at +187 (Almabayev hasn’t been finished in eight years) or play it a bit safer and take Kape double chance (decision and KO) at -170 odds. We’re going to go with the latter.

Best Bet: Manel Kape Method of Victory Double Chance - Decision/KO/TKO/DQ (-170)