UFC on ESPN Covington vs. Buckley Main Card Odds & Best Bets

The UFC is wrapping up its 2024 season with one final UFC on ESPN card this Saturday. And they’re doing it in style at Amalie Arena in Tampa Bay, Florida, the home of the NHL’s Lightning. The headliner and final UFC fight of the year is an intriguing matchup between veteran No. 6 contender Colby Covington and up-and-coming No. 9 Joaquin Buckley. Check out our best bets for that battle of top 10 welterweights as well as the rest of Saturday night’s main card.

UFC on ESPN 63: Colby Covington vs. Joaquin Buckley Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 6 Colby Covington vs. No. 9 Joaquin Buckley Welterweight Bout Betting Odds

This is a tougher fight to pick than the UFC betting odds would have you think. While Colby “Chaos” Covington (17-4) has been uneven and inactive over the last few years, there’s reason to back him on Saturday. Joaquin “New Mansa” Buckley (20-6) has been on an absolute roll since returning to 170 pounds, stringing together five straight wins since May 2023.

New Mansa has fought 14 times since he joined the UFC in the COVID summer of 2020. Chaos has fought just four times in that span, and he’s gone 2-2 in those scraps. On top of his advantage in activity, Buckley also has the edges in age (30 to 36) and reach (76 to 72 inches) over Covington.

This feels like a ready-made situation where a division legend like Covington finally passes the torch to the new guard represented by Buckley, but for some reason, we just don’t believe it, no matter how much we might want to.

Buckley is massive, having come down from middleweight last year, and he’s extremely quick and accurate on the feet. And then there’s that power. He knocked out both Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque, both of whom had only suffered one KO in their respective careers previously.

However, the big thing here is the length of the fight. Since this is a main event, it will be Buckley’s first five-round fight. He has gone 15 minutes comfortably before, but those championship rounds are a whole other animal. The fact that Buckley came down from middleweight might be a negative here too, as his weight cut will drain his cardio potential even more. Not to mention that chiseled, muscular physiques like his are not built for long-form fighting. They’re built for bursts.

Covington, meanwhile, is the unofficial kind of cardio. Each of Covington’s last seven fights, dating back to when he won the interim belt in 2018, have gone into the fifth round.

He looked worse than he ever has in his most recent fight, a decision loss to Leon Edwards almost exactly a year ago. However—whether you believe him or not—Covington claims he fought 95 percent of that fight with a broken foot. It would certainly explain his lack of movement and aggressiveness in the fight, as it was clear he was not himself on the night, so we’re inclined to believe it.

It pains us to say it, but we think Buckley might have to wait a little while longer for that torch. Covington has had a year to get his body right, and his chin is tough enough (he’s only been TKO’d once) for us to buy that he can survive the first 10 minutes against Buckley. Covington will then be able to dominate Buckley in the clinch, on the ground, and may even try for a few takedowns, all of which will nullify Buckley’s significant advantage in the striking game.

If you’re feeling frisky, a smaller bet on Buckley to win by KO/TKO in the first (+650) or second (+700) would be fun. However, we believe Covington will be able to wrestle and grapple his way to a decision victory over an exhausted Buckley.

Best Bet: Colby Covington to Win Via Decision

Cub Swanson vs. Billy Quarantillo Featherweight Bout Betting Odds

Two battle-tested dogs go head-to-head here in a matchup with massive Fight of the Night potential. 41-year-old Cub “Killer” Swanson (29-14), a veteran of 24 UFC battles, will take on 36-year-old Billy Quarantillo (18-6).

Swanson showed that he can still bang with the best of them back in June when he lost a split decision to Andre Fili, earning Fight of the Night honors. There’s not much separating these two brawlers, but we’d lean with Swanson and the experience at +125 if we had to. However, we think this battle of wills is most likely to reach the final bell, so we’re going with the fight to go the distance here.

Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance - Yes (-110)