UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 Main Events Betting Preview & Odds

After a card full of fireworks at UFC 298, the promotion is back with one of its spiciest non-PPV events in recent memory. The main and co-main events will feature two ranked bouts with serious title implications, as two top three fighters in the bantamweight division battle and two top four lightweights throw down.

In the main event, former flyweight champ Brandon Moreno takes on No. 3 flyweight Brandon Royval. Moreno, unsurprisingly, comes in as a big-time moneyline favorite in front of the home crowd according to the top betting sites.

UFC Fight Night 237: Brandon Moreno vs. Brandon Royval 2 Main/Co-Main Event Betting Odds - February 24

UFC Fight Night 237 will be the sixth time the UFC has gone south of the border to host an event in Mexico, and will be the first Mexican card since 2019. In the main event, Mexican former flyweight champion and current No. 1 contender Brandon Moreno will face off with No. 3 Brandon Royval. The co-main event is just as good, with two former title challengers scrapping it out in No. 3 lightweight contender Yair Rodriguez and No. 4 Brian Ortega. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 1 Brandon Moreno vs. No. 3 Brandon Royval Flyweight Main Event Bout Odds

This one is intriguing because it’s a rematch of a fight back in 2020 when Brandon Moreno (21-7-2) knocked out Brandon Royval (15-7) in the first round to earn his first flyweight title shot in the UFC, which turned out to be the beginning of an epic trilogy against Deiveson Figueiredo.

Since then Moreno has dropped one fight apiece to Figueiredo and current champ Alexandre Pantoja, while Royval’s only defeats have also come against Pantoja. In fact, the last time each of these fighters fought, they lost to the guy with the belt.

More likely than not, the winner of this fight will get another shot at Pantoja, despite the fact that the Brazilian has already beaten both of these fighters not once, but twice apiece.

It’s tempting to look at the last time Moreno and Royval squared up to predict what will happen this time around, but considering Royval came in with a shoulder injury and then dislocated that shoulder early on, it’s not as consequential a consideration as it could’ve been.

Royval is one of the most entertaining flyweights to watch because he’s unpredictable, his stand up game is as unorthodox as they come, and on the mat he loves a wild scramble. That makes him a very dangerous fighter, as evidenced by the fact that 13 of his 15 wins have come via finish.

However, Moreno has never been stopped, and he might be the most durable flyweight to ever step in the octagon. He’s a much more technically sound striker both offensively and defensively, which should serve him well against a guy like Royval, who’s prone to wild outbursts that leave him open on the counter.

At the end of the day, Moreno’s biggest advantage comes on the mat, where Royval really struggles to get up once he’s put on his back. Pantoja just took him down a whopping eight times in December, and in just five minutes Moreno was able to take him down twice in that 2020 fight.

The Mexican will also be fighting in front of his home crowd, so he’ll be even more locked in than usual. Moreno has the advantage everywhere except maybe in power, so we like him to win, though we don’t love his -303 moneyline odds.

For that reason, Moreno’s +125 odds to win by decision are probably the best outcome bet here, though Royval’s struggles on the mat also make Moreno’s +350 odds to win via submission a pretty good shout too.

Moreno has never been finished, and Royval has only been finished twice, one of which has an asterisk next to it due to his shoulder issue against Moreno. These guys are tough as nails and neither of them really has one-touch power, so the fight to go the distance at +100 is our best bet for this scrap.

No. 3 Yair Rodriguez vs. No. 4 Brian Ortega Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout Odds

In the co-main event we get another rematch, this one between No. 3 lightweight Yair Rodriguez (19-4, 1 NC) and No. 4 Brian Ortega (15-3, 1 NC).

The last time Rodriguez fought, he was severely outclassed by former champ Alexander Volkanovski, though that’s really nothing to be ashamed of. Meanwhile, Ortega’s last fight was against Rodriguez, when the Mexican fighter won via doctor’s stoppage four minutes into the bout due to, you guessed it, a shoulder injury for Ortega.

What are the odds that both the main and co-main event feature a rematch of a fight that was won by a Mexican fighter following a shoulder injury to the loser?

We’re worried for Ortega again in this one, as he has not fought for 19 months and has only had three bouts since 2018. He’s back from his injury now, but even his recent form is worrisome, as he’s lost three of his last four outings, two of which came via doctor’s stoppage.

Rodriguez is the fresher and more well-rounded fighter. While Ortega is a submission machine, Rodriguez has concrete fists for a guy fighting at 145 pounds. Five of his last seven finishes have come via stoppage, and his unrelenting style will cause problems for Ortega, who willingly takes a ton of damage and relies on his tough chin to get him through.

Even if he does get Rodriguez to the ground—which is entirely possible, as takedown defense is one of Rodriguez’s few weaknesses—El Pantera is pretty good at defending on the ground, and he’s got five submission wins to his name as well.

Ortega seems like he’s on his way out, having taken nearly 600 punches over his last four fights. For context, Rodriguez has taken just over 750 combined in his entire 14-fight UFC career. So, barring some uncharacteristic mistake from Rodrigue on the mat, he should have no problem winning this one.

We expect the Mexicans to sweep the co-main and main events, and with Ortega getting way too much respect on the odds, Rodriguez’s -149 moneyline odds are very bettable. However, we also like his +175 odds to win by KO or +250 odds to win via decision.