UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko Main Card Betting Preview

The UFC Fight Night 227 card at T-Mobile Arena will be headlined by a rematch with the women’s flyweight championship belt on the line for current champ, Alexa Grasso, and former champ, Valentina Shevchenko. Compared to all of her previous fights, Shevchenko comes in as a relatively small favorite on the moneyline at most UFC betting sites and apps.

UFC Fight Night 227: Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Main Card Betting Odds - September 16th

The co-main event will pit No. 13 contender Kevin Holland against No. 14 Jack Della Maddalena, and it’s not a matchup you want to miss out on because it could be done in a flash. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

( C ) Alexa Grasso vs. No. 1 Valentina Shevchenko Women’s Flyweight Championship Main Event Fight Odds

When it comes to title fight upsets, no one’s holding a candle to Sean Strickland after last weekend—but if anyone was going to, it would be Alexa Grasso (16-3) thanks to her absolute shocker of a win over Valentina Shevchenko (23-4) in March. Shevchenko was a -600 odds favorite for that fight, and not only did Grasso win, she became the first woman to finish Shevchenko in 13 years.

Shevchenko was on an unprecedented run of success when Grasso came across her path, so it’s possible and even likely that the former champ was taking Grasso lightly. Not this time around. However, Grasso still needs to be respected, and she has been, as evidenced by the betting odds.

In the first matchup, Grasso was the much busier striker, and her ability to switch stances really flustered Shevchenko. Grasso’s volume is what helps her to win rounds as she points her opponents into oblivion, and that shouldn’t change in this fight. The stance switching won’t be as much of an advantage this time, however, as Shevchenko will have had time to prep for it.

Shevchenko technically outlanded Grasso in the standup, but it was clear who was running the show in those exchanges. That’s why Shevchenko started shooting for takedowns. And she did so successfully, getting five minutes of control time in Rounds 2 and 3. One of Grasso’s weaknesses is her defensive wrestling, so this is a well we would expect Shevchenko to return to early and often on Saturday night.

It’s also worth noting that while Grasso is a former strawweight fighter, Shevchenko is a former bantamweight, so her edge in terms of strength is pretty massive—another advantage for the former champ on the mat.

If Shevchenko can land a couple of significant blows on the feet and take a couple of rounds via her wrestling, she should be good to go and get her belt back. She’s a great play at -175 odds, but her +130 odds to win via decision offers a little bit more value.

And speaking of decisions, we love this fight to go the distance at tasty -114 odds. In 46 combined pro fights, these ladies have been finished a combined three times. Eight of Grasso’s last 10 wins have come on the cards, and at 35, Shevchenko doesn’t have the same knockout power she once did.

No. 13 Kevin Holland vs. No. 14 Jack Della Maddalena Welterweight Co-Main Event Fight Odds

This one is about as close to a toss up as you’re going to see in the UFC. Both are elite strikers who knock out their opponents far more often than not. Just four of Kevin Holland’s (25-9, 1NC) 25 wins have come by way of the judge’s scorecards, and the same goes for just two of Maddalena’s (15-2) 15 victories.

So, before we get into who’s actually going to win this flip of a coin kind of fight, let’s consider some of the length of fight props. Whether win or lose, all six of Holland’s most recent fights have been finished before the final bell, and only two of Maddalena’s fights have gone the distance, with both of his losses coming by finish. With the weapons at hand, we’re all over the fight to go under 2.5 rounds at -145 odds.

In terms of who is actually going to win this one, we’re going to have to lean slightly towards Holland. Not only is he offering more betting value with +110 odds, but he’s also got the edge in height and reach. The eight-inch reach advantage in particular is nothing to scoff at. 

He’s also packing more power and his experience fighting elite competition in the division will serve him well. Apart from Wonderboy, no one has ever really outclassed Holland in a striking battle, and his reworked ground game is a nice tool to fall back on. Maddalena comes with a lot more volume, so he could take this one if Holland doesn’t stay aggressive, but we don’t foresee that being a problem for the 2020 UFC Fighter of the Year.