UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Main Card Betting Odds & Best Bets

The UFC enjoyed their holidays, but they’re back after a few weeks off for their 2025 debut with another UFC Fight Night. This one will take place at the Apex on Saturday and be headlined by a top 8 matchup in the women’s strawweight division between No. 6 Mackenzie Dern and No. 8 Amanda Ribas. There are a few other intriguing bouts on the six-fight main card, so let’s dive into our UFC betting picks for this slate.

UFC Fight Night 249: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas 2 Main Card Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 6 Mackenzie Dern vs. No. 8 Amanda Ribas Women’s Strawweight Bout Betting Odds

In the main event, two-weight class star Amanda Ribas (13-5) will take on Mackenzie Dern (14-5) in what will likely be something of a title eliminator. Whoever wins this one is likely one more win away from a title shot against Zhang Weili, so both women will be locked in.

These two have met before, but that fight, which was won via unanimous decision by Ribas, doesn’t mean much here six years later. Since then, Dern has been pretty good, going 7-4. However, she has not done well when presented with similarly tough tests, with losses to Jessica Andrade and Yan Xiaonan in recent years.

Dern has improved her striking in the interim, but not enough to rival what Ribas can do on the feet. The other issue is that Dern struggles to get opponents to the ground, where she can be so lethal. She somehow has just a 16 percent takedown accuracy, which is trouble considering Ribas has an elite takedown defense at 85 percent.

It seems impossible for Dern to win this fight unless she gets it to the ground, and it seems highly unlikely that she’ll be able to achieve that against someone as stout as Ribas. We’re surprised betting sites have pushed Ribas’ moneyline odds down below -200, but since they did, we’re going to play it safe with a bet on her moneyline rather than a method of victory shout.

Best Bet: Amanda Ribas Moneyline (-188)

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Carlston Harris Welterweight Bout Betting Odds

In the co-main event, we get a matchup featuring a couple of veterans, though only one is a veteran in the UFC. Santiago Ponzinibbio (29-8) is looking to stay semi-relevant, as the 38-year-old has dropped four of his last five fights. Meanwhile, 37-year-old Carlston Harris (19-6) will also be looking to get back in the win column after losing his last fight via first-round KO to Khaos Williams back in May.

However, Harris has looked pretty good apart from that and a loss to Shavkat Rakhmonov since joining the UFC, as he’s won his other four bouts. We would have liked Harris in this one, but this matchup with Ponzinibbio is just a terrible stylistic matchup. Harris will want to take the fight down to the mat, but he’s going to struggle to do that, as Ponzinibbio hasn’t been taken down since 2017. We like the UFC legend to take this one.

Best Bet: Santiago Ponzinibbio Moneyline (-138)