UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady Main Card Betting Picks & Odds

Everyone in the MMA world is gearing up for the big UFC 307 event at the Sphere in Las Vegas, but first, we have one more UFC Fight Night to get to, and it could be a doozy. With three bouts featuring a pair of top 10 ranked fighters—specifically two No. 6 vs. No. 8 matchups—there will be more starpower at the Apex on September 7 than usual.

UFC Fight Night 242: Gilbert Burns vs. Sean Brady Betting Picks & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

No. 6 Gilbert Burns vs. No. 8 Sean Brady Welterweight Bout Betting Odds

The main event of the evening is a familiar clash of experienced veteran contender with exciting up-and-comer, with Gilbert Burns (22-7) serving in the former role and Sean Brady (16-1) taking on the latter. The 38-year-old Burns will have a slight edge in the grappling sector, though, Brady can be pretty active there too. On the feet it’s a little less certain.

Burns has now lost three of his last five, though his last loss was a tough late TKO in a fight he could have won by decision over Jack Della Maddalena. Meanwhile, Brady has only lost once in his career, a couple of fights ago against the now-champ Belal Muhammad, who beat him by TKO.

Not taking anything away from Muhammad, but that was his only TKO win in the UFC, which puts Brady’s stand-up game and chin in question. With two straight losses in the bank, we think Durinho will be desperate to win this fight, and his experience fighting top flight talent five or six years will serve him in good stead against Brady, who’s only “big” UFC wins have come against Kelvin Gastelum and Michael Chiesa, both of whom are well past their primes.

With Burns offering plus money here, it’s hard to turn the veteran from Brazil. Brady has looked in good in spots, but he hasn’t put together a full performance against a fighter of Burns’ caliber. Until that happens, we’re not backing him with UFC betting odds as short as these -175 odds he has. We’re going with Durinho.

Best Bet: Gilbert Burns Moneyline (+150)

No. 6 Jessica Andrade vs. No. 8 Natalia Silva Women’s Flyweight Bout Betting Odds

Jessica Andrade (26-12) looked like she was down and out after three straight stoppage losses, but she’s bounced back with a big KO of Mackenzie Dern and a solid performance in a split decision win over marina Rodriguez. However, her propensity for mistakes might cost her here against a young, polished, and massive up-and-comer in Natalia Silva (17-5-1).

Silva is five years younger, with a three-inch reach advantage and a two-inch height advantage. While Andrade has shown she can hold her own against larger women before, this one, who is 5-0 with two stoppage wins since joining the UFC, might be too tough to handle. Silva’s win against No. 9 Vivianne Araujo was impressive, but this one would really put her on the map.

She is the better defensive striker, so she will be able to find success with her counters against Andrade, and when Andrade gets frustrated and tries to take it to the ground, Silva can use her 90 percent takedown defense. The former UFC strawweight champ has lost 12 times, and only three of those have come by decision, so we don’t think this one’s making the final bell.

Best Bet: Natalia Silva to Win By Finish (+200)

Steve Garcia vs. Kyle Nelson Featherweight Bout Betting Odds

This one could be the most fun fight of the night. Steve Garcia (16-5) is on a four-fight TKO win streak, while the more UFC-experienced Kyle Nelson (16-5-1) is on his own three-fight winning streak. Both of these guys love to scrap it out on the feet so we can expect some fireworks in this one: sports betting sites are offering -650 odds for the “fight to go the distance” prop.

Garcia looks like he could finish anyone right now, and with the way Nelson fights, taking nearly five significant strikes per minute, that is big trouble. Garcia has cinderblocks for fists, and Nelson was knocked out cold in 2020, so his chin is not above reproach. We’re going with the favorite here.

Best Bet: Steve Garcia to Win via KO/TKO/DQ