UFC Fight Night 232: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Main Card Odds

The UFC returns on Saturday, November 18th with another Fight Night event with an intriguing main card of scraps. While there is only one top 15 matchup, that doesn’t mean there aren’t a few massive talents entering the octagon at the Apex this weekend. In the main event, American Brendan Allen is the massive moneyline favorite on all sports betting sites.

UFC Fight Night 232: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig Main Card Betting Odds - November 18th

The co-main event on Saturday will be a matchup of welterweights in Michael Morales and Jake Matthews. Also on the main card will be a fight pitting lightweights Chase Hooper and Jordan Leavitt against each other. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 10 Brendan Allen vs. No. 13 Paul Craig Middleweight Main Event Fight Odds

This will be a battle between an up and comer and a grizzled veteran. The veteran will be Scotland’s pride, No. 13 middleweight Paul Craig (17-6-1), who is coming into this one on the back of a big bounce back performance in a knockout win over Andre Muniz back in July. He has only lost two of his last nine fights and while he’s the older fighter by eight years, he also holds an inch reach advantage and two-inch height advantage.

His opponent will be 27-year-old American Brendan Allen (22-5). Allen may be the youngster in this one, but he’s been in the UFC since 2019 and has won 11 of his 13 fights with the promotion, including his most recent effort, a first round submission victory of Bruno Silva in June.

Interestingly, this main event features two guys who prefer to sink in a choke rather than knock the lights out of their opponents, with both men counting 13 wins via submission over the course of their careers. A lot of times, a matchup of equally proficient grapplers results in a stalemate in that arena of the fight, resulting in some fireworks on the feet. However, both of these guys recently fought and beat another tough grappler in Muniz, and both men looked to secure takedowns in that one.

While we think Allen is probably the better striker, and the fact that Craig is 35 and coming down a weight class, which requires a tougher weight cut, doesn’t help him either, we find it tough to bet on Allen. Not only are Allen’s odds prohibitive at -455, but Craig has been known to come out of nowhere to win fights he had no business winning.

Craig has only ever had one fight end outside the distance, so we like this one to be finished before the bell, and considering Allen hasn’t knocked anyone out in his last 10 fights and 13 of 17 of Craig’s wins have come via submission, we like the +200 odds for one of these wrestlers to finish with a choke or hold of some sort.

Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews Welterweight Co-Main Event Fight Odds

In the co-main event, Michael Morales (14-0) will try to keep his record unblemished against Jake Matthews (19-6). Matthews is in tough here, because Morales has looked like a beast in his four UFC wins so far, and the Australian is also at a one-inch height and pretty massive six-inch reach disadvantage here.

This is an intriguing grappler vs. striker battle, but it’s clear Morales comes in with the advantage. Not only is he a much crisper striker, he’s also got a pretty solid looking chin (so does Matthews, for that matter), and his takedown defense and determination to get back up make him a tough match for the more experienced fighter.

We’d love to bet on Morales’ moneyline here, but with the odds being what they are, that’s not really an option. We don’t see Matthews getting a finish here, though he’s likely to have his say. Morales isn’t much of a submission artist, and Matthews hasn’t been knocked out since 2016, so that leaves us with three options. You can take Morales by decision at lovely +200 odds, you could take the fight to go over 2.5 rounds at -105 odds, or you can take the fight to end by decision at +120. For our money, Morales’ +200 odds offer the most value of the trio.

Chase Hooper vs. Jordan Leavitt Lightweight Fight Odds

This lightweight battle sees exciting 24-year-old Chase Hooper (12-3-1) going up against another Brazilian jiu-jitsu expert in Jordan Leavitt (11-2). Hooper is coming off arguably his most impressive win in May against Nick Fiore. Leavitt will be tougher, but not by much. Leavitt may be a good grappler, but Hooper might be better, and with Leavitt’s pretty rough takedown defense, Hooper could get on top early and dominate this one. How exactly Hooper will end the fight is anyone’s guess, so we’re sticking with the safe bet on his moneyline here at -200 odds.