UFC Fight Night 228: Fiziev vs. Gamrot Main Card Betting Preview

The UFC returns to the familiar confines of the Apex in Las Vegas for Fight Night 228, which will take place on September 23rd. The main card will be headlined by an exciting top 10 bout in the absolutely stacked lightweight division pitting No. 6 contender Rafael Fiziev against No. 7 Mateusz Gamrot. This bout is one of the tightest main events in recent memory, with Fiziev coming in as a very slight moneyline favorite on most betting sites and betting apps.

UFC Fight Night 228: Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Main Card Betting Odds - September 23rd

All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 6 Rafael Fiziev vs. No. 7 Mateusz Gamrot Lightweight Main Event Fight Odds

This fight is bigger than some might think, because despite how loaded the lightweight division is, the winner of the bout between these two promising prospects could very well get the next title shot against either Islam Makhachev or Charlies Oliveira. It will probably take an impressive performance for that to happen though, so hold onto your hats.

Rafael Fiziev (12-2) comes into this one having lost his last fight back in March to Justin Gaethje. It was a decision win for Gaethje, but Fiziev represented himself very well, contributing to the battle winning Fight of the Night honors, Fiziev’s fifth straight performance bonus.

His opponent will be the polishman Mateusz Gamrot (22-2, 1 NC) who has won five of his last six fights, though not often in a convincing fashion. Gamrot most recently fought Jalin Turner, squeaking out a tight split decision victory.

While Fiziev is the kind of guy that wants to and can keep the pressure on with his elite boxing power, Gamrot has a mean gas tank and is very good when things go to the cage or the mat. It’s another in a long line of grappler vs. striker matchups that never stop being intriguing.

We’re leaning towards the striker on this one, as we believe Fiziev’s superiority in the boxing exchanges will be too much for Gamrot to handle. He hasn’t been finished before, but he has been knocked down in four different fights, and Fiziev is probably the most powerful puncher the Pollack has faced in his career.

Gamrot is a relentless wrestler, which kind of takes away from his boxing because it’s so obvious how laser focused he is on achieving his goal on the mat. Fiziev can put together some scary combinations, and we expect him to be able to find the button and become the first man to finish off Gamrot. Fiziev is a good bet at -165 odds on the moneyline, but his odds to win by KO at -105 offer a lot more value.

No. 10 Bryce Mitchell vs. No. 12 Dan Ige Featherweight Co-Main Event Fight Odds

This fight between Bryce Mitchell (15-1) and Dan Ige (17-6) is a very similar matchup, with Mitchell playing the part of the wrestler and Ige, the part of the boxer. Only this one should be expected to be a lot more tame. Only two of both Mitchell and Ige’s last eight fights were finished before the bell, so whoever wins, we like it to be by decision.

Mitchell is the big favorite, but he took the first loss of his career last time out via submission to Illia Topuria really poorly and even openly contemplated retirement. He’s been battling some issues in his private life recently that could affect his mindset going into the octagon as well. 

Mitchell is voracious when it comes to his love for takedowns, and Ige has had a lot of trouble with those types in the past. However, we think Ige will come out with steely nerves and improved takedown defense and keep Mitchell on his feet, where he’s a fish out of water. Mitchell’s confidence is shaky right now, and Ige is the kind of tough, rugged fighter with a stinging jab that can take advantage of that.

Roll with Ige to either win on the moneyline at +170, which is value enough. If you want a little more juice, however, take Ige to win by decision at +400 odds, which is how he’s taken seven of his last 12 victories.

No. 8 Marina Rodriguez vs. No. 12 Michelle Waterson-Gomez Women’s Strawweight Fight Odds

These two ladies have fought before, with Marina Rodriguez (16-3-2) outlasting Michelle Waterson-Gomez (18-11) over five rounds. In that one Rodriguez dominated the early rounds with her superior striking before completely running out of gas. Since this will only be a three-rounder, Rodriguez would seem to have the advantage considering neither fighter has really improved or altered their style since 2021.

Waterson has lost five of her last six fights while Rodriguez is coming in carrying a two-fight losing streak. With both at 35+ years old, neither of these ladies is in their prime either. Rodriguez’s sound boxing should give her the win over Waterson, who struggles with her defensive striking. Rodriguez is only offering -230 odds to win by decision, and that’s the best you’re going to get with this fight.