UFC Fight Night 226: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Main Event Odds

The UFC heads back to France for UFC Fight Night 226 at Accor Arena in Paris on September 2nd. The promotion leaned into the French connection with this card, adding as many of their French fighters to the card as they could. Leading the way is former interim heavyweight champ and current No. 2 contender Ciryl Gane, who will take on No. 7 Sergey Spivak in the headlining event. On his home turf it was expected that Gane would be the favorite on the moneyline and that’s exactly what he is on all betting sites and betting apps.

UFC Fight Night 226: Ciryl Gane vs. Sergey Spivak Main Event Betting Odds - September 2nd

This will be Ciryl Gane’s first action since he lost the heavyweight championship via rear naked choke to Jon Jones back in March. Sergey Spivak, for his part, last fought in the main event at a Fight Night event in February where he was able to submit UFC legend Derrick Lewis in just three minutes. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

No. 2 Ciryl Gane vs. No. 7 Sergey Spivak Heavyweight Main Event Fight Odds

Ciryl Gane (11-2) really needs a bounce back win here to remain relevant, because the way he lost the title to Jon Jones six months ago was embarrassing. Last time the Frenchman needed a bounce back, he went to his homeland and beat up on Tai Tuivasa for a TKO win. He’ll be hoping he can do the same this time around.

Gane first arrived in the UFC in 2019 and went on to win his first seven straight fights with the promotion, including four wins by finish, one of which was via the elusive heel hook. Gane was able to get a title shot after that winning streak not just because of how he won, but who he beat.

He TKO’d former heavyweight champ Junior dos Santos, then he beat ranked fighters Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Alexander Volkov by decision. He followed that up with his piece de resistance, a third round TKO win against Derrick Lewis. After that, he was dominated by Francis Ngannou in a title fight. He came back with the Tuivasa win, though that was followed by his pitiful effort against Jones.

In Gane’s way at Accor Arena will be Moldovan submission artist Sergey Spivak (16-3), who has finished his last three straight fights in the first two rounds. Spivak is all about wrestling and he is determined to get his opponent to the mat, shooting for takedowns early and often and usually getting them: his 66 percent takedown accuracy is the best in the division by a mile.

He also joined the UFC in 2019, though his introduction to the promotion was much rougher than Gane’s. He was knocked out in his first fight, then he submitted Tuivasa before losing again to Marcin Tybura. Since then, he’s won six of seven fights, with his lone loss coming against Tom Aspinall. His most recent win, against an over-the-hill Lewis, is by far his most impressive to date.

The good news for Spivak is that while Gane is a well-rounded fighter, the one area where he has really struggled in the past is with his takedown defense. The bad news for Spivak is that he doesn’t have much of a standup game, and the quality of opponents he’s fought is not nearly on the same level as Gane.

Gane is longer, taller, and stronger, which could cause problems for Spivak at distance and on the fence. If he tries to get in tight on Gane he puts himself in danger of taking one of Gane’s sharp elbows in the clinch. The fact that Spivak offers nothing in the stand up will also allow the Frenchman to put all of his focus on avoiding the mat.

If Spivak can get Gane down and get some top control time, he could maybe squeak out a decision win, but he’s making a big jump in terms of opponent caliber here, so it will be a tough night. Spivak does have some power, but he uses it more as a last resort than anything else, so if you believe the Moldovan can pull off the comeback, you might as well go for the value and bet on him to win via decision at +600 or by submission at +375.

Gane should be able to use his superior athleticism to stay on his feet and pick Spivak apart in the boxing exchanges. Spivak’s chin is also a little bit suspect after we saw him get dropped by what didn’t seem to be a massive elbow from Tom Aspinall in the Moldovan’s most recent loss. And it wasn’t his first loss by TKO either. Gane has immense power, so the best bet here considering his chalky moneyline odds is to go with him to get the finish at +110 odds.