UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev Main Card Odds & Best Bets

After three straight weeks of Fight Nights that were lacking in star power, we’re getting a whole bunch for UFC 313 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday night. For the headliner, we get one of the most highly-anticipated matchups in recent memory with a light heavyweight title fight between champ Alex Peireira and No. 1 contender Magomed Ankalaev.

On top of that, we’ve got an early Fight of the Year candidate between ranked lightweight knockout artists Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev in the co-main event. The top four fights all feature moneyline odds below -200, which means you should be able to find value no matter who you’re backing! Let’s dive into our UFC betting picks for this stacked card!

UFC 313: Alex Pereira vs. Magomed Ankalaev Main Card Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

(C) Alex Pereira vs. No. 1 Magomed Ankalaev Light Heavyweight Main Event Bout Betting Odds

Alex Pereira (12-2) has been a machine since joining the UFC. He’s fought and beaten everyone they’ve thrown at him. However, Magomed Ankalaev (19-1-1, 1 NC) might be the toughest matchup he’s had to deal with yet. Pereira hasn’t fought a ton of guys with wrestling prowess, and the one guy who did, Jan Blachowicz, took him down three times for seven minutes of control time in a split decision win for Poatan.

Pereira is not only packing the power of the Gods, but he’s also the single most accurate striker in the division, posting a 67.2 hit rate that is 10 points higher than the next best fighter (Jon Jones). Ankalaev, however, is not your regular wrestling-or-bust Dagestani mixed martial artist. He’s an excellent striker as well, and he’s got the second-best striking defense (58.8) in the division.

We think that, while Ankalaev is no slouch on the feet, Pereira has a clear advantage there. Ankalaev has a massive advantage on the ground, but we’re not sure he’ll be able to use that to push for a win. Blachowicz has a much higher takedown success rate (50 percent) than Ankalaev (31), so we think Pereira will have more success in that respect. It’s also worth noting that Glover Teixeira, one of the great grapplers in light heavyweight history, is in Pereira’s camp showing him the ropes.

We like Pereira to win this fight, and the moneyline odds he’s getting from betting sites are more than reasonable if that’s the way you want to go. However, we are leaning more towards the total rounds prop here. Poatan has been finished just once since his first ever MMA bout, and same goes for Ankalaev.

These guys are both tough and skilled, and we think they’re going to show each other some respect, so this might not be the fire fight some are hoping for. They will slowly look to figure one another out, which would be good news for a bet on the over here. Khalil Rountree Jr. nearly made it to the fifth round with Pereira, and five of Ankalaev’s last seven full fights (discounting the NC against Johnny Walker) have gone the distance. We’re betting on this fight to go over 3.5 rounds here.

Best Bet: Fight Total Rounds Over 3.5 (-110)

No. 3 Justin Gaethje vs. No. 11 Rafael Fiziev Lightweight Co-Main Event Bout Betting Odds

If you agree with us that the Pereira-Ankalaev fight might be a little short on fireworks, don’t fret, because we’ve got a cracker of a matchup in the co-main event. Two years ago, Justin Gaethje (25-5) took on Rafel Fiziev (12-3) as the co-main event at UFC 286. You might remember that event: it’s the one where Leon Edwards shocked the world with his head-kick knockout of Kamaru Usman in the main event.

However, it was the co-main event, featuring these two nuts, that earned Fight of the Night. It was a tight scrap throughout, one which Gaethje won via majority decision after it went to the judge’s cards. In the next fight, Fiziev lost via a leg injury to Mateusz Gamrot. He has not fought since. Gaethje, meanwhile, head-kicked Dustin Poirier into oblivion before joining the Diamond there after suffering an epic last-second knockout against Max Holloway.

Both of these guys love to throw bombs, and that was evident in their last matchup. However, the last fight saw both deal out a ton of punishment, and neither folded. Each of these guys can take a lot of damage, and since this is a three-rounder that feels too close to call, the fight to reach the final bell seems like a safer bet here.

Best Bet: Fight To Go The Distance - Yes (-110)