UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano Main Events Odds & Best Bets

It took three weeks, but we’ve finally got our first UFC pay-per-view of 2025 with UFC 311 taking over the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. The organizers have ensured that the ongoing California wildfires will not effect the event. However, an injury can. Instead of lightweight champion Islam Makhachev taking on No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan, he’ll have to settle for No. 10 Renato Moicano after Tsaryukan was yanked from the card at the last minute due to injury. Without further ado, let’s dive into our best bets!

UFC 311: Islam Makhachev vs. Renato Moicano Main Card Best Bets & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

(C) Islam Makhachev vs. No. 10 Renato Moicano Lightweight Championship Betting Odds

It’s always a bit jarring when you get a new opponent on the eve of battle, but if anyone can stay locked in Islam Makhachev (26-1). And it’s not like he’s getting a tougher opponent. He went from 28-year-old 22-3 Arman Tsaryukan—who had lost just once since the first time he fought Makhachev back in 2019—to 35-year-old 20-5-1 Renato Moicano—who has lost four bouts in that same timeframe.

Moicano is the older fighter by two years, but he’s got one-inch and two-inch advantages in height and reach, respectively.

Considering Moicano was originally training for a three-round fight at this same event, the fact that he will now have to fight five rounds will be trouble for him. He’s only ever gone five rounds once in his career, and he lost a unanimous decision to Rafael dos Anjos, who is five years his senior. There are very few scenarios in which we can see Moicano overcoming the well-rounded Makhachev.

The dominant Dagestani is much better on the feet than Moicano, and that’s not even the champ’s main strength. Moicano will have to hope he can point out a win, because if it’s taken to the mat Mackhachev might have an even larger advantage despite that being Moicano’s specialty as well.

The betting odds are still on the board for all props for this fight because of the late opponent change for the champ. When they get up there, we like Makhachev’s odds to win via decision, as long as they stay around or below -200 odds. Moicano hasn’t been finished in the last five years.

It might also be worth checking out Makhachev’s odds to win via TKO/KO/DQ. He’s put away three of his last five opponents that way, while TKO is the most common way Moicano has lost fights in his career, with three, the most recent of which came in 2020. Our best bet will be whichever of Makhachev by decision or Makhachev by TKO is offering the better value here. You can talk yourself into either one.

Best Bet: Islam Makhachev by Decision (TBD)/Islam Makhachev by KO/TKO/DQ (TBD)

(C) Merab Dvalishvili vs. No. 2 Umar Nurmagomedov Bantamweight Championship Betting Odds

Merab Dvalishvili (18-4) is polarizing because he probably has the most boring style in the UFC—but it’s also the most effective and reliable. His path to victory: cardio. His gas tank is second to none, and he has generally used that to tire out his opponents, spamming takedowns until they can’t take it anymore.

Enter Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0), an undefeated challenger that is living up to his name. The Dagestanis know a thing or two about wrestling, takedowns, and submissions. People say it's his name that got him here, but we’ve seen Khabib disciples succeed massively before. Just look at the main event of this very card.

Dvalishvili has next to no striking ability, while Nurmagomedov has an excellent and varied striking game. Nurmagomedov shouldn’t be as big a favorite as he is on these online betting sites, but his ability to attack in various ways means he’s the rightful favorite here. After Sean O’Malley, we would never bet against Dvalishvili if his opponent was a striker, but that’s not Umar’s identity. The -275 Nurmagomedov moneyline odds offer zero value so we’ll go with the Russian to take this one via decision at very reasonable -105 odds.

Best Bet: Umar Nurmagomedov by Decision (-105)