UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili Main Card Betting Odds & Picks

A night the MMA world has been waiting for for some time is finally on our doorstep with UFC 306 or “Noche UFC” taking place at the unique Sphere in Las Vegas tomorrow night. The card is predictably stacked at the top, with two highly-anticipated championship bouts, but after that, it is a bit underwhelming other than the interesting featherweight matchup between No. 3 featherweight Brian Ortega and No. 13 Diego Lopes, so we’re sticking to the main and co-main events here.

UFC 306: Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Betting Picks & Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

( C ) Sean O’Malley vs. No. 1 Merab Dvalishvili Championship Bantamweight Bout Betting Odds

This one has been long-awaited and highly-anticipated. It’s a classic matchup of knockout artist and grappling guru, with the champion, Sean O’Malley (18-1, 1 NC) boasting the type of power never before seen in the UFC at 135 pounds and his challenger, Merab Dvalishvili (17-4) showing the type of dedication, skill, and determination in grappling exchanges that will overwhelm most guys.

O’Malley is not most guys, however. He’s massive for a bantamweight fighter, holding a five-inch height advantage and four-inch reach advantage that will make it tough for Merab to set up the takedowns he likes to use to dominate a fight.

Dvalishvili basically just spams takedowns for as long as it takes to get a guy down, and that’s gonna be a problem against a guy as big as O’Malley who can keep him at range with his straight jabs. That style of precise, direct kick-boxing will also help him counter if the Georgian ever does decide to throw one of his looping shots on the feet. His long legs will be dangerous whenever Dvalishvili decides to shoot as well.

O’Malley was taken down a few times by Petr Yan, it’s true, but he still won that fight by split decision, and he’s already proven he can beat an elite wrestler in Aljamain Sterling, who we would say is the more dangerous and active wrestler when he’s in control, whereas Dvalishvili is happy just to take position and play it safe.

Dvalishvili does have a very concrete chin, but he’s never faced the power of O’Malley, so it’s a tough decision for us between O’Malley straight up or O’Malley by decision. This time around, we’re going to play it safe and cover all of our bases with Suga Sean’s very reasonable -138 UFC betting odds on the moneyline, though his +400 odds to win via decision are certainly worth consideration.

Best Bet: Sean O’Malley Moneyline (-138)

( C ) Alexa Grasso vs. No. 1 Valentina Shevchenko Women’s Flyweight Bout Betting Odds

The third, and likely final, matchup between these two giants of female MMA should be a doozy just like the previous two. Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) won the first matchup by shocking face crank, but former champ Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) came back much better in the rematch to earn a draw, which many said she should have won.

While Shevchenko looked better in the rematch in September of last year, it was still clear that at 35, she had lost a bit of the speed and quickness that had made her so deadly for so many years. Now 36, she’s likely even slower, and Grasso’s dominance in the stand-up exchanges is likely to be exacerbated while Shevchenko shoots relentlessly for takedowns to reduce the damage.

Another big thing is that many of Shevchenko’s previous opponents were visibly sacred of her; Grasso is clearly not. She’s in her prime, she’s the better striker, she knocked Shevchenko down in the last fight, she has 45 minutes of experience against her, and her takedown defense is improving. We’re going to play it safe here again, though we have a sneaking suspicion this one is going to the cards again.

Best Bet: Alexa Grasso Moneyline (-138)