UFC 304: Main & Co-Main Event Betting Odds and Best Bets

After a few snoozer Fight Nights, UFC pay-per-views are back with UFC 304 hitting Manchester, England on Saturday. As if the fighters on the card weren’t impressive enough, the two men defending their championship belts are English, so the crowd should be raucous from the outset. Will both Englishmen emerge victorious on home soil? Well, the UFC betting odds we’re getting from sports betting sites are answering that question with a resounding YES, but are they right?

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad Main & Co-Main Event UFC Betting Odds

All odds provided by Betway.

( C ) Leon Edwards vs. No. 2 Belal Muhammad Welterweight Title Fight Betting Odds

It’s been a long time coming, but Belal Muhammad (23-3, 1 NC) is finally getting another shot at Leon Edwards (22-3, 1 NC), and with a belt on the line this time. There is a lot that ties these two guys together apart from that accidental eye poke three years ago.

While Muhammad loves to pressure opponents and get the fight down to the mat, Edwards is a master kickboxer who can outpoint and duck and dodge his opponent as well as anyone, a la Floyd Mayweather.

In the first bout between these two, Edwards looked pretty comfortable, and even hurt Muhammad with a kick. He’s got a few inches of both height and reach over his opponent, which allows the Englishman to keep Muhammad at a distance and pick him apart with his superior kickboxing.

Edwards also showed in recent fights that he can go up against an elite wrestler—such as Kamaru Usman—and stay on his feet where he wants to be. Muhammad is a pressure fighter, but in the first fight it was Edwards applying the pressure, and Muhammad didn’t seem to know how to deal with it.

He’s a much better fighter now than he was then, thanks in no small part to Khabib Nurmagomedov’s tutelage, but Muhammad still feels like he lacks advantages here. He’s got a high IQ, which has allowed him to use various skill sets to beat different opponents, but the only plus he has here on Edwards is his offensive wrestling, which is unlikely to pay dividends against a guy who is top 10 in the division in takedown defense.

Edwards is bigger, longer, quicker, and more polished on the feet. If he fights with the same pressure he did in the first matchup between these guys, he should be able to secure another title defense in front of the home crowd. Muhammad has only been finished once, and it was nearly a decade ago, so we like “Rocky” to win this one via decision at very reasonable +100 odds.

( IC ) Tom Aspinall vs. No. 4 Curtis Blaydes Heavyweight Title Fight Betting Odds

In the co-main event, the interim heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall (14-3), will get his chance to right the wrongs of his first matchup against the challenger, Curtis Blaydes (18-4, 1 NC). In 2022, when they fought, the bout lasted just 15 seconds as an Aspinall knee injury resulted in a near-instant victory for Blaydes.

However, we’re not expecting that to happen again. Aspinall is one of the most well-rounded finishers in the sport, able to put opponents to sleep via punch or submission. He’s also extremely quick and has very impressive footwork for a 260-pounder, which should serve him in very good stead against a plodder like Blaydes.

Basically, there are two ways this one is gonna go. The first, and what we believe to be the more likely scenario, is that Aspinall jumps on Blaydes early, overwhelming him with his speed and power, and gets the finish. Blaydes is very hittable, which is why his trek to a title shot has taken so long: the best strikers put him to sleep.

The only way scenario one doesn’t occur is if Blaydes bides his time and remains out of the line of fire in the early stages of the fight. Only one of Aspinall’s last 11 fights have gone past the first round, and it’s reasonable to assume he might crash out if this thing reaches round three, when his speed and power are sapped. If Blaydes can survive the first 10 minutes, a live bet on him would be a smart move.

However, we don’t think it will get that far. Blaydes simply leaves himself too open too often for a guy like Aspinall—whose knocked out much more technical strikers—not to take advantage. The best value lies in Aspinall to win by knockout in round one, which is offering solid +120 odds.