UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland Main Card Betting Preview & Odds

The UFC returns to Sydney, Australia for UFC 293 on Saturday, September 9th, their first visit in six years. Due to some unforeseen cancellations, this is one of the weaker pay-per-view cards for the promotion for some time. However, that doesn’t mean we can’t find betting value, though we’re unlikely to find it on the moneyline in the main event, where champion Israel Adesanya is a massive favorite on all betting sites and betting apps.

UFC 293: Israel Adesanya vs. Sean Strickland Main Card Betting Odds - September 9th

The Last Stylebender will look to defend his middleweight championship belt against No. 5 contender Sean Strickland. In the co-main event we get a tasty heavyweight matchup between No. 6 contender Tai Tuivasa and No. 7 Alexander Volkov. The only other ranked fighter on the card is Manel Kape, the No. 10 flyweight, who will take on youngster Felipe dos Santos. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.

( C ) Israel Adesanya vs. No. 5 Sean Strickland Middleweight Championship Main Event Fight Odds

This one was shaping up to be one of the most highly anticipated fights of the year, but in the end Dricus du Plessis was forced to back out and in his stead stepped Sean Strickland on short notice (27-5) after having just fought on July 1st. 

Strickland is a solid all-around fighter with a very unorthodox fighting style. He’s won eight of his last 10 bouts, but he hasn’t beaten any top notch fighters yet, losing to both Jared Cannonier and Alex Pereira last year, both of whom Israel Adesanya (24-2) beat soundly last time he fought them.

Adesanya is the superior fighter in pretty much every way imaginable. Strickland is tough, he’s got a lot of heart, and he keeps the pressure on, but that won’t be enough against an elite technician like Adesanya. 

Strickland usually relies on his jab to get things going, but seeing as how he is at a four-inch reach disadvantage here, he won’t be able to do that. Not to mention the fact that he tends to lean hard on that lead leg, which will leave it open for one of the best leg kickers in the game to take advantage.

Adesanya should win this one handily, but the only question is how he will do it. While Strickland is likely to be out classed here, he’s got a pretty tough chin, as he’s been knocked out just once in the last five years, courtesy of Pereira. Strickland has also fought five full rounds in four of his last six fights, so we like Adesanya to give him death by a thousand cuts and win by decision at +150 odds.

No. 6 Tai Tuivasa vs. No. 7 Alexander Volkov Heavyweight Co-Main Event Fight Odds

Tai Tuivasa (14-5) has been on a pretty rough run lately, losing his last two bouts by way of brutal knockout. Alexander Volkov (36-10), meanwhile, has bounced back from a submission loss to Tom Aspinall with a couple of first round finishes.

Volkov is definitely the form fighter out of this pair, and he’s also a more well-rounded striker. Tuivasa’s plodding, slugger style worked for him against lesser opponents, but against the cream of the crop, he has come up short time and again. He has been finished by Ciryl Gane, Sergei Pavlovich, Junior dos Santos, and Sergey Spivak. The only decent fighter he’s beaten in recent years is Derrick Lewis, who is on the back nine of his career. 

We don’t expect this one to last long, so you should consider either betting on the fight to last under 1.5 rounds at -115, or put down on the fight to be finished in the opening stanza at +140 odds. Either way, we really like Volkov to get the win here. Only two of his last eight wins have come by decision, and Tuivasa has been finished in four of his last five losses. Take the plus odds on Volkov to win by KO here at +100.

No. 10 Manel Kape vs. Felipe dos Santos Flyweight Fight Odds

Felipe dos Santos (7-0) is only 22, and he fights like it. He offers a ton of volume, but not much in the way of defensive boxing. Manel Kape (18-6) just so happens to be a rare knockout artist at 125 pounds, finishing 16 of his 18 wins, which is nearly unheard of at flyweight. This fight seems pretty predictable: we expect dos Santos to rush in recklessly on Kape one too many times, so take Kape to starch him and pay off his -105 odds to win by KO.