NFL Super Bowl 59 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI - Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115)
Ever since Jalen Hurts and the now-legendary 600-pound squat strength in his lower body arrived in the NFL, he’s been an absolute touchdown machine. He’s only been in the league five years, and he’s already got four of the top 14 touchdown seasons by a QB in NFL history, including three of the top five, all over the last three years. He’s already 3rd all-time in QB rushing TDs, with 55.
He didn’t skip a beat this year despite losing the most important cog in the Tush Push system: Jason Kelce. No matter, as Cam Jurgens slid over from guard seamlessly and plowed the way for 14 more Hurts TDs in the regular season, as well as three more in the playoffs—so far. Hurts has rushed for a TD in 13 of his 17 appearances this year.
The Brotherly Shove is a huge part of why we’re betting this prop, there’s no way of getting around that. That means Philly getting it to the 1-yard-line. The Eagles ran 21 plays from the opponent’s 1 this year, most in the NFL. They ran it on 20 of those plays, also most in the NFL. 12 of those 20 went for TDs, most in the NFL.
Hurts took 15 of those carries, scoring on 11 of them (backup Kenny Pickett also had the pleasure of scoring on a successful Tush Push), both by far the most in the NFL. The Chiefs also had 14 plays run on them from their own 1-yard-line, which was t-7th most in the league.
Hurts’ unmistakable nose for the end zone has been especially acute in the playoffs: he has rushed for nine TDs in eight playoff starts. That includes 1+ TD in five of his last seven postseason outings. The Chiefs also gave up four rush TDs to QBs this year, tied for 8th-most in the NFL. There’s no way betting sites should be giving us this prop with such little vig, but we’re not gonna turn our noses up at it.
Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI - Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Now, it’s only 17 games in 19 that this Chiefs defense has allowed an opposing tight end to cover the over on their receiving yards prop. Not quite 18 of 19, like it could have been (thanks, Dalton Kincaid), but still pretty good.
K.C. gave up nearly three yards more per game to tight ends (70.1) than the next-worst team in that category this year. Before Kincaid’s stinker, they had given up 64 to Dalton Schultz, 60 to Pat Freiermuth, and 140 to Brock Bowers in recent weeks.
Goedert, meanwhile, is on a bit of a roll himself. He has gone for 47, then 56, then 85 yards in Philly’s three postseason games. He leads the Eagles in targets, receptions, and yards in the playoffs, and he should have another big day as Hurts’ security blanket in New Orleans.
Travis Kelce, TE, KC - Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Travis Kelce broke his seemingly never-ending streak of 70+ yard games in the playoffs with an absolute stinker in the AFC Championship. We bet on him then, and we’re going to do it again here. We view that performance as nothing but a hiccup. Kelce may not be as athletic as he once was, but he still has a telepathic connection with Patrick Mahomes, and he has an innate ability to find soft sports in zone coverage.
Just to refresh, Kelce had gone 14 straight playoff games with 70+ receiving yards before going for 19 against the Bills. However, he has somehow upped his game even more during the Super Bowl. His last three Super Bowls appearances have seen him take nine receptions for 93 yards, six receptions for 81 yards, and 10 receptions for 133 yards.
It’s worth noting that, while Philly was excellent at defending TEs during the regular season, that hasn’t been the case in the playoffs: Tucker Kraft had five catches, Tyler Higbee had seven for 54, and Zach Ertz had the game of his life with 11 for 104. It’s nice to see betting apps not gauging us on Kelce’s line either, as 61.5 feels more than reasonable—and extremely achievable.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC - Over 5.5 Rushing Attempts (-125)
Last but not least we have a rare rushing attempts prop. We heard Bill Simmons mention this one, and it seems too good to be true, even if the oddsmakers are kind of screwing us on the -125 line here. You can’t win ‘em all, though.
The Chiefs don’t let Mahomes sneak it, but he loves himself a good scramble or designed bootleg. He does it a lot more in the playoffs, too. He averages 3.9 carries a game in the regular season compared to 5.4 in the postseason. He’s also toted the rock 6+ times in five straight playoff games and six of his last seven. This year, he’s ran it seven times and 11 times in his two playoff games.
