After a perfect 4-for-4 card on Divisional weekend, we split our best bets on Conference Championship Sunday. Cool. But I digress, we will look to recreate that Divisional weekend magic here for Super Bowl 59, as we give you the four best prop bets you can find accompanied with the very best NFL betting odds.
NFL Playoffs Best Bets: 9-5 (+1.18)
2024 NFL Regular Season Sunday Slate Best Bets: 60-30-1 (+17.68)
Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.
All odds provided by Betway.
|
Team |
Moneyline |
Point Spread |
Total |
|
Kansas City Chiefs |
-120 |
-1.0 (-110) |
O48.5 (-110) |
|
Philadelphia Eagles |
+100 |
+1.0 (-110) |
U48.5 (-110) |
What this game is largely going to come down to is two things: can the Chiefs stop Saquon Barkley and the rest of Philly’s potent ground attack, and can Jalen Hurts avoid turnovers completely. The last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl, the Eagles were driving with an early 14-7 lead when a Hurts fumble was returned for a TD by the Chiefs to tie the game.
It’s those types of mistakes that Hurts needs to avoid, and he has done so for the most part this year. He threw four interceptions in the first four weeks of this season, but since then, he has been picked off just once in 328 pass attempts. K.C., for what it’s worth, has not forced a turnover yet in this postseason either. That’s a stark departure from 2022 and 2023, when they had at least one takeaway in six of seven playoff games.
The other question is Barkley. And we’ve got to say, we’re not sure even Steve Spagnuolo’s unit will be able to stop this well-oiled machine. Every team comes into matchups with the Eagles seemingly prepared for it, and they still can’t stop it.
On top of Barkley, Hurts as a rushing threat keeps defenses on their toes, The unbelievable quickness and athleticism of Philly’s No. 1 rated offensive line is also not spoken about enough considering the starting five averages a height of 6’6” and a weight of 338 pounds. Even All-Pro Chris Jones will struggle to deal with that.
The Chiefs had the 10th-rated run defense in the league during the regular season, but it has not played like it in the playoffs. In an alarmingly common occurrence, opposing OCs refused to feed their backs against Kansas City despite all the success they saw on the ground.
Joe Mixon had just 18 carries despite going for 88 yards and a score, and James Cook was getting anything he damn well pleased (13 carries for 85 yards and 2 TDs, three catches for 49 yards) in the AFCCG. If only Joe Brady could’ve gotten out of his own way.
We know, we know, Patrick Mahomes is on the other side. But honestly, he hasn’t been otherworldly this season, and he hasn’t gone up against a team as well-rounded as this Eagles roster. They are one of just two teams (Lions) to be in the top seven in both scoring and points allowed. They can throw it, they can run it, they can stop the run, and they can get after the QB. We absolutely love the even odds on Philly’s moneyline that we’re getting from betting apps.
However, if you want something with a little more chutzpah, we’ve got a stat for you. The Chiefs have won five of their last eight playoff games by exactly three points, including both of their Super Bowl wins during that run. Not to mention that eight of their 17 wins this season have come by six points or fewer, so to hedge our Eagles bet, we’re taking K.C. winning margin 1-6 at lovely +320 odds.
Best Bets
Since the turn of the century, there have been 24 Super Bowls, and the over has gone exactly 12-12 in those games. In the four Super Bowls in which Patrick Mahomes has appeared, the over/under is also 2-2, so not much help there either. We could hang our hats on the city. New Orleans hosted five Super Bowls prior to 1985, and they all went way under the total. But, since then, the Big Easy has hosted five more, and four of those have gone over.
Philly has gone way over this game’s total in their last two playoff games, and ditto for the Chiefs. This is also the 2nd-lowest over/under total for a Super Bowl since Super Bowl 50. And if we buy this 48.5 number down to 45.0 or so at around -180 odds, the history looks a lot more welcoming. 15 of the last 22 Super Bowls have reached that number, so that’s where we’ll settle here.
Best Bets
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
