Pre-Draft 2024 NFL MVP Betting Odds & Preview

After a blockbuster trade sent star wideout Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills to the Houston Texans, the odds for the 2024 NFL MVP betting markets saw a major shift at the top, with Texans QB C.J. Stroud’s odds shortening. There was movement with a few other top contenders as well, though some of it is a little tougher to explain than Stroud’s situation.

2024 NFL MVP Pre-Draft Betting Odds Update

All odds provided by Betway unless otherwise stated.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs, +650

Since we last took a look at these odds, Patrick Mahomes has added Marquise Brown and an intriguing former rugby player who’s been clocked faster than Tyreek Hill (Louis Rees-Zammit)—yet somehow his odds rose from +600 to +650. The reason why is as much a mystery to us as it is to you, but we’re not going to overthink it: Mahomes has been the safest MVP bet every year since 2018.

His team is nearly always a No. 1 seed, which is usually a big plus in terms of a player’s likelihood of landing the MVP award. Mahomes has won two MVPs during that time, once in 2018 and once in 2022. The latter was won without a 1,000-yard wideout, so now that he’s got Brown in the mix, one would think that his odds would shorten.

Instead, they’re offering more value than ever. Don’t overthink this, grab Mahomes’ +650 odds before betting sites come to their senses and they shorten once again.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills, +750

If anyone on this list should have seen their odds balloon after the Stefon Diggs trade, it’s his former QB, Josh Allen. Allen has now lost his top two receivers in Diggs and deep threat Gabe Davis, and the only signing they’ve made to supplement those losses is slot man Curtis Samuel. The former Commanders WR could fill the role Cole Beasley used to have, but Allen needs more help on the outside based on the current complexion of their receiver room.

However, instead of Allen’s odds jumping to +1,000 or somewhere in that arena, his odds have actually shortened for some reason. The Bills had to cut tons of key starters on both sides of the ball because of salary cap concerns, and the team’s GM, Brandon Beane, even admitted that he doesn’t believe that the team is better after the Diggs trade.

Buffalo is going through a retooling in 2024, and that’s not usually a recipe for success. If we could bet on Allen NOT to win MVP, we would, but since we can’t, just make sure you stay away from this Allen future—unless Buffalo swings a trade for Tee Higgins or trades up in the draft to grab one of the top three WR prospects: Washington’s Rome Odunze, Ohio State’s Marvin Harrison Jr., and LSU’s Malik Nabers.

C.J. Stroud, +1,000

The only player that should have seen their MVP odds shorten after the Diggs move is Houston’s up-and-coming signal caller, C.J. Stroud. He’s already won some NFL hardware, taking home Offensive Rookie of the Year after putting up historic numbers as a freshman in the league. Stroud was actually 9th in MVP voting last year as a rookie, too.

All GM Nick Caserio has done this offseason is load Stroud’s already stocked weapons cache with even more firepower.

Caserio traded for a Pro Bowl running back who’s excellent in the passing game in former Bengal Joe Mixon, and they dealt for four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs to come in and lead a young receiving corps. That WR group already had a 1,300-yard receiver in Nico Collins, a very exciting rookie in Tank Dell, a comfy security blanket in tight end Dalton Schultz (who was signed to a lucrative extension), and perhaps the most productive WR3 in the NFL last year in Noah Brown, who had a career-high 567 yards in 2023.

The Texans could legitimately have the best offense in football, and they’re playing in one of the weaker divisions in football in the AFC South. If they win their division and finish as a top two seed while Stroud just replicates what he did last season during the offseason—though with all the talent they’ve added he should surpass those numbers—he’ll be a shoo-in for the MVP unless Mahomes somehow eclipses Peyton Manning’s iconic 2013 numbers. If you want to bet on an NFL MVP future, Stroud is the value play right now with the +1,000 odds.