Week 18 was a weird slate as several of our best bets were kept off the board, but we made up for it by pivoting to the other Chargers tight end and throwing down on anytime TD bets for Josh Jacobs and Will Shipley. We still went 3-1 to bring our regular season record to 47-25 and +16.39. We’re looking to continue our strong finish to the season as we focus on two particular games for our player prop best bets for the NFL’s WIld Card Weekend.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 47-25 (+16.39)
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
The Eagles were saving Saquon Barkley for something. And that something is this Wild Card game against the Packers. And this is about as tough an opponent as you could ask for. The Packers allow the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game to RBs, at just 82.3, and their 4.0 rushing yards per attempt are 3rd-fewest in football.
While we love matchup over performance in the regular season, teams rely even more heavily on their stars in the postseason, and for Philly, that’s going to be Barkley. Quarterback Jalen Hurts is going to be back from a multi-week concussion absence, but the Eagles will probably be extra careful with him considering how good the running game is.
Barkley has topped 100 yards in seven of his last nine games, and he should see carries in the mid-20s. He has also done some damage against similarly stingy defenses before, going for 100+ against the Ravens—who allow the fewest rushing yards per game to RBs—earlier this year.
Barkley’s number is higher than we’d like, as usual, but he’s hit the over in five of six games with a prop of 85+ and he’s gone two for three when his rushing yards prop is set at 100 or more. The online betting sites aren’t doing us any favors, but with a player like Barkley, they don’t need to.
The Eagles have allowed running backs to score five TDs this year, the lowest number in the NFL. They haven’t allowed a running back to score a receiving TD, period. Well, they will meet their match when Josh Jacobs and his Packers come to the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday. Jacobs has scored a TD in 11 of his last 13 games, including a run of eight straight going into this matchup.
As we said in our Barkley write-up, matchups are king in the regular season, but things are different in the postseason. Not to mention that a run like Jacobs is currently on can’t exactly be ignored, especially when NFL betting sites are offering plus odds on the RB’s TD prop. Jacobs scored against the Seahawks, Vikings, and Rams earlier this year, all of whom are among the top 12 in fewest rushing TDs allowed (like the Eagles) to RBs this year. Jacobs has bucked the trends for several weeks in a row, and we expect him to do it again in Philly.
We have been spamming RB overs against the likes of the Giants, Panthers, and Bears over the last few weeks with amazing success. No more. Now that we’re down to the top 14 teams in the league, there are no awful ones to bet against. However, one strikingly subpar run defense did slip into Wild Card Weekend thanks to the weekly heroics of a rookie QB.
That team is the Commanders, who allow the 4th-most rushing yards per game to RBs and the 3rd-most rushing yards per game overall. They also give up 4.8 rush yards per attempt, 3rd-most in the NFL. They have struggled to stop the run all year, but especially recently.
They have allowed the opposing starting running back to cover the over on his rushing yards prop in seven of their past 11 games, including their last three straight to finish the year. Bucky Irving has been rolling as well, going for 88 or more rush yards in five of his last seven outings.
Other than one hiccup in Week 17, which we paid for, the Buccaneers have been a reliable fade when it comes to opposing tight ends. They have allowed a TE to cover in six of their last seven games, and they allowed the 2nd-most yards per game to that position throughout the campaign, at 67.3.
Zach Ertz has also been coming on of late. He took five catches for 44 yards and six for 72 yards in the last two games of the regular season, and rookie QB Jayden Daniels will be looking for his security blanket early and often. Ertz has also been a great playoff performer in his career: he’s gone for 44+ yards in five of his last six postseason outings.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
