We hit our first two picks last Sunday, but dropped our second too to fall to 2-2 for the second straight week. Fear not, however, because we’re still very much in the black on the season, boasting +4.91 units over 32 picks. We’re going to get back to the basics this week and make sure that we don’t take unnecessary risks—while still ensuring we don’t sacrifice any value either.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 20-12 (+4.91)
All odds provided by Betway.
Tua Tagovailoa was back under center for the Dolphins last week, and while his return didn’t result in a win for Miami, the offense did put up its most yards since Week 1, with 377. A lot of that came courtesy of De’Von Achane, who had 97 yards rushing on top of 50 through the air. He also played 12 percent more snaps than Mostert, as the youngster asserted himself as the new leader of Miami’s backfield.
Like the rest of Miami’s offense, Achane struggled without Tua, especially in the passing game, where he racked up 49 receiving yards in four games. In the three games where Tagovailoa has started for the Dolphins this year, Achane has been a fixture of the passing offense, going for 76, 69, and 50 yards. He’s also essentially the only back catching passes in Mike McDaniel’s offense: while he has 34 targets, the rest of Miami’s RBs have 10 combined.
The number we’re getting on this prop from NFL betting sites is a little bit higher than we’d like, but we still feel confident here due to Achane’s position as the sole back in the passing game on top of Tua’s impact on Achane’s usage.
Miami’s Week 9 opponent, the red hot Buffalo Bills, didn’t have an answer for Achane in Week 2, allowing him to catch seven passes for 69 yards despite Buffalo utterly dominating the proceedings. Since then, Buffalo has remained the worst defense in football in terms of defending running backs in the passing game, allowing a league-high 54.3 receiving yards to RBs through Week 8. Since Week 4, Buffalo has allowed three backs to go for 55+ receiving yards.
In the first four games of the season, which Derek Carr started and finished, Alvin Kamara averaged 90.5 rushing yards and topped 75 in each. Over the next three weeks, without Carr, Kamara averaged just over 25 rushing yards per game.
Kamara showed a little fight last week, however, churning out 67 yards despite only taking 10 totes. Now, with Derek Carr back in the fold and the hapless Panthers on the menu, Kamara should rediscover his early-season form and feast.
The fact that the Panthers are one of the worst teams in the league likely means that the Saints will be able to play with a lead, a game script that favors Kamara. However, the fact that Carr is just back from injury would also point to a game plan that would be very run-centric as well. Carolina has already allowed seven RBs to top the 69.5-yard number betting sites are offering for Kamara in Week 9—one of which was Kamara himself, when he went for 83 yards in the season opener.
Brian Flores’ unit has been good, but they are one of just two defenses currently allowing opposing WRs 200+ yards a game. They have allowed a 100-yard game to an opposing receiver in five of their last six, and the only exception was Stefon Diggs, who still had 94.
Enter Josh Downs. The second-year man has taken a leap as a sophomore, arguably usurping Michael Pittman Jr.’s role as the team’s WR1—especially when Joe Flacco has been at the helm. With Indy benching Anthony Richardson in favor of the veteran this week, Downs should have another bigeday. In Flacco’s three-week span from Weeks 4-6, Downs averaged 72.3 yards and held a 27 percent target share, which would rank tied for 6th in the NFL if stretched across the season.
With both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, it’s anyone’s guess who Tampa Bay’s WR1 should be—but there’s no doubt who their top pass-catcher is, and that’s Cade Otton. Otton had 100 yards on 10 targets the week those top two wideouts got hurt, and he followed it up with 10 targets for 81 yards last week. Even when Evans and Godwin were healthy, Otton was hovering around this mark, going for 47, 52, and 44 from Weeks 3-5.
Their opponent, Kansas City, while possessing of an elite defense overall, has one small crack in their foundation, and that is defending TEs. The Chiefs are allowing 80.9 yards a game to TEs, by far the most in the NFL. K.C. has allowed an opposing TE to hit the over on his yards prop in every game this season, including allowing a TE to go for 50+ in the last two straight games.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
