After a few weeks in a row going 3-1, we regressed a bit last week, putting up a 2-2 showing thanks to lackluster efforts from Kenneth Walker and Justin Jefferson. Nonetheless, we remain at a success rate of over 64 percent on the season, so no need to sound the alarm bells yet. Here are our NFL betting picks for the Week 8 player prop slate.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 18-10 (+5.09)
All odds provided by Betway.
During the first four weeks, Javonte Williams played more than 57 percent of snaps just once, but he has topped 63 in each of his last three outings. Meanwhile, backup Jaleel McLaughlin has seen 25 percent or fewer in back-to-back weeks. Williams has also seen 15 targets to McLaughlin’s six over the last three games.
Williams has had 60+ rush yards in three of his last four contests (covering his prop in each), and when he didn’t reach that number, it was because Denver had gone down 20-0 to the Chargers, which meant they weren’t looking to run the ball.
The Panthers are a dumpster fire, and with both of their top wideouts out this week and Bryce Young back under center, expect the Broncos to control a lot of the ball and play with a lead, a game script that would be conducive to a big day from Williams, who’s coming off 88 yards last week. Here are the RBs who have topped 62.5 against the Panthers so far this year:
One of the best feel-good stories of the season had a hiccup last week, and unfortunately we were along for the ride, as Dobbins was held to just 40 yards. However, he gets an even better matchup here, in Week 8.
Dobbins has been getting 78 percent of the running back carries since Gus Edwards went on IR, and while he has only hit 90+ once in the last four games, this is the matchup to help him get back on track, as the Saints feature the third-worst run defense and the league and the fifth-worst specific to RBs (116.9 per game).
The Saints will be without Derek Carr again, which means the Chargers are likely to see a lot of the ball with the erratic Spencer Rattler on the other side. Here are the RBs who have gashed the Saints run defense for 76.5 or more yards this season:
This week, Bijan Robinson takes on a defense in Tampa that is brutal when it comes to defending pass-catching backs, as they allow the third-most receiving yards to RBs (52.3).
Robinson is one of the most active running backs in the league when it comes to the air attack, ranking fourth in targets, with 28, and third in receptions, with 24, among running backs. He has gone for 20+ receiving yards in five of seven games this year, and he has seen 78 percent of Atlanta’s RB targets as well.
The Buccaneers defense is coming off a rough outing where they were thrashed by the Ravens, a performance which included the allowance of three receptions for 44 yards to Baltimore’s third-down back, Justice Hill. Tampa had already allowed the likes of Alvin Kamara, Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, David Montgomery, Brian Robinson, and Austin Ekeler to go for 24+ receiving yards previously.
Just like the Bijan prop, which we took last week with success too, we’re going back to the well with Kenneth Walker, who had 24 yards on two receptions last week to cover a slightly lower number against the Falcons.
Since returning from injury in Week 4, Walker has been on fire through the air. He has strung together receiving performances of 36, 57, 37, and 24 yards in that four-week span. Over the last three weeks, backup Zach Charbonnet has just five receptions to Walker’s 17.
Like the Buccaneers, the Bills struggle to stop running backs from making an impact in the passing game, which is likely largely down to the continued absence of their wily middle linebacker, Matt Milano. Whatever the reason, they’re allowing the second-most receiving yards to RBs in the league this year, at 54.4. In four of the last six games, Buffalo has allowed an opposing RB to produce 50+ yards receiving, and Walker’s got the skills to add to that list.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
