The bell tolls, and we go 3-1 again, like clockwork. We’ll get that vaunted 4-0 soon, don’t worry. But in the meantime, we’re hitting 66.7 percent of our player props through one third of this whacky 2024 campaign, and we’ll look to continue that pace—if not improve on it—here in lucky Week number 7.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 16-8 (+5.27)
All odds provided by Betway.
Among RBs, Bijan Robinson is currently eighth in targets, fifth in receptions, and ninth in receiving yards, with 161. He’s averaging just under four receptions and 26.8 receiving yards per game so far.
Not only is Robinson producing at a reliable clip, but he’s really the only guy coming out of the backfield to run routes for Atlanta. His 134 routes run are third among RBs overall, but more importantly, that number represents 76 percent of the routes run by RBs for the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier is the only other guy there, and he’s got just seven targets all year.
Now, onto the matchup. The Seahawks are middle of the pack when it comes to defending running backs running routes out of the passing game, giving up over 31 yards per game. While that isn’t as high as we usually like, the Seattle defense has given up 389+ passing yards in three straight weeks. Robinson has had under 20 receiving yards in back-to-back games, but he had 20+ in the first four, and we expect the Seahawks to get him back on his receiving horse.
The Falcons have allowed 6.3 targets to RBs, which is tied for the sixth-most, which means they are offering up opportunities, and opponents simply aren’t taking advantage.
Last week, Chuba Hubbard had five receptions, Alvin Kamara had seven a couple of weeks before that, Samaje Perine had three catches despite playing just 28 snaps the week before that, and in Week 2 Saquon Barkley had four for 21 yards. Kenneth Walker has been a much more reliable receiver this year than all of those guys, save perhaps Kamara.
Walker did miss a quick two-week stretch there in September, but he seems to be back to full force here. The number is way down at 21.5 from most top NFL betting sites, which is likely because of the Falcons’ ranking in terms of RB receiving yards.
Walker had only two receptions for six yards in Week 1, but since returning in Week 4, Walker has put up three straight impressive receiving lines (targets-receptions-yards): 5-4-36, 8-7-57, 8-8-37. So, yeah, 15 receptions over the last two weeks? I think he’s the receiving back in this offense.
Last week, CeeDee Lamb went for 89 yards on an 85.5 yard prop. Two weeks before that (the Lions had a bye in Week 5), D.K. Metcalf had 104 yards. We bet on both overs successfully, so we see no reason why we shouldn’t continue doing the same here.
After a slow 59-yard opening week, Justin Jefferson has topped 80 yards in four straight, including two where he topped the 91.5 number he’s getting for this matchup from sports betting sites. Here’s how top WRs have done against Detroit in recent weeks:
Who has been a more pleasant surprise this season than J.K. Dobbins? Anyone who saw the vision before fantasy drafts was rewarded handsomely with a guy that is offering up top 12 RB production in half-PPR leagues despite the fact that he’s missed 33 percent of his team’s games so far this season.
Dobbins has clearly plopped himself into the driver’s seat in the Chargers’ run-heavy offensive attack, overtaking former and current teammate Gus Edwards in a matter of quarters rather than games. He has played 70+ percent of the snaps over the last two weeks.
As if that wasn’t already a large share, his main backup, Gus Edwards, was just shipped off to the IR, and the guy coming in to fill those snaps, Kimani Vidal, is likely to take more third-down snaps than anything; if Vidal is going to affect Dobbins’ production, it’s more likely to happen in the air attack.
Oh, and by the way: the Cardinals are giving up the second-most rushing yards per game to running backs this year. Two running backs went for 50+ last week against this defense, Jordan Mason went for 89 the week before (a successful bet for us), Brian Robinson Jr. churned out 101 the week before that, and in Week 3 two Detroit backs crossed the 80-yard threshold.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
