NFL Week 7 MNF Doubleheader Betting Picks & Player Props

The first matchup of this doubleheader features a top AFC team taking on one of the NFC’s biggest overachievers, and the other pits a pair of young, intriguing rosters that are trying to find their footing. Sports betting sites have set both spreads below four points, so we should be in for some excitement. Here are our betting picks for the doubleheader!

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Picks & Player Props - Monday @ 8:15PM E.T.

All odds provided by Betway.

Many stats these days are stats for the sake of stats, and one of the most notable of these is Lamar Jackson’s nearly unbelievable 21-1 mark against NFC foes through 6+ years in the league.

While it would seem inconsequential (how much do NFC teams have in common?), there is no denying that it is a legitimate and clear trend that has held consistent for a very large sample size—22 games is nearly a season and a half’s worth of data and material. He’s got a 35-8 TD-INT rate, and he’s also run 10 scores in with his legs in those games. Something about the NFC gets Jackson amped… but that’s not the only thing.

Perhaps predictably, the reigning NFL MVP loves to play in primetime: he’s 18-6 in late games in his career, his best mark for any time slot, and his 100.1 passer rating in those games is also his best. To supplement these Jackson numbers, here’s one from the other side: Baker Mayfield is 3-6 all-time against Baltimore, including a 1-5 mark in his last six meetings with these birds.

Baltimore’s getting very reasonable odds from NFL betting sites, so their -190 number is bettable, but we’d be confident taking their -3.5 point spread as well. Another bet worth considering is the over on this one’s 50.0 point total, though you could buy it down a point or two. This matchup features two of the four worst pass defenses in football going against the team with the most passing TDs (Buccaneers) and the team with the most net yards per pass attempt (Ravens).

Game Best Bets:

• Baltimore Ravens Moneyline (-190)
• Alternate Game Total Over 48.5 (-138)

Buccaneers vs. Ravens Player Prop Picks

The Buccaneers are giving up 4.7 yards per carry, ninth-most in the NFL, and they have been specifically susceptible to running QBs. Opposing quarterbacks have taken 6.5 carries per game versus T.B., fourth-most in football, and the 31.2 yards they’re giving up on those totes is fifth-most.

Spencer Rattler ran for 27 yards, Bo Nix went for 47, and Jayden Daniels went for 88, so if you’re a little mobile, you can find scrambling lanes against this defense. Jackson has also averaged 67.3 rush yards per game in primetime games during his career. This season, Lamar has rushed for 54+ yards in four of six games, and we think he’ll do it again here.

Best Bets

• Lamar Jackson Over 51.5 Rush Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Chargers Betting Picks & Player Props - Monday @ 9:00PM E.T.

All odds provided by Betway.

Here’s something that is strange but true: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is 12-24-1 at home in his NFL career. Homefield is usually referred to as an advantage, but it seems that, for Arizona’s speedy QB, the desert is a hindrance rather than a help. Specifically, Murray is 3-11 in his last 14 home games, stretching back to 2022.

More importantly and, in this situation, even more relevant, their defense in 2024 has once again been awful. Last year they were the worst run defense in the NFL, and this year, they’re giving up the fourth-most rushing yards per game in the league (153.0). That’s bad news bears when you’re going up against a team coached by Jim Harbaugh and Greg Roman.

J.K. Dobbins has been as pleasant a surprise as any in the league in 2024, and that’s because the Chargers are committed to the running game. L.A. is eighth in rushing attempts per game (30.0) and 10th in rushing yards per game (127.0). That matchup will prove consequential here, and the Chargers will get the road win to push to 4-2.

Game Best Bet: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline (-120)

Cardinals vs. Chargers Player Prop Picks

Sticking with the above theme, we like Dobbins to hit the over on his 79.5 rushing yards prop, which has gone up from 77.5 on Friday, which signals that many are seeing the mismatch between him and his run-centric Chargers offense and the Cardinals’ swiss cheese ground defense.

The birds have been specifically bad against running backs: the 124.8 ground yards they’re allowing to RBs is second-most in the league. Nearly just as important is the fact that Dobbins has clearly taken a stranglehold on the RB1 job and has topped this number in three of five games this season.

Best Bets

• J.K. Dobbins Over 79.5 Rush Yards (-110)