It was another week, another 3-1 showing for us on player props in Week 5. We’ll get that perfect 4-0 soon enough—maybe even as soon as Week 6. Check out our top four player props for this weekend’s action, complete with the top NFL betting odds as well.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 13-7 (+4.71)
All odds provided by Betway.
While D’Andre Swift’s production on the ground has been a bit topsy-turvy (though stronger of late), he has been reliable as they come catching passes out of the backfield. After going for 0 receiving yards in Week 1, he’s hit his prop in four straight weeks, going for 24, 22, 72, and 47 through the air.
Swift is getting a ton of opportunities in the passing game: his 113 routes are seventh-most among RBs and his 6.8 pass-block rate (how often he blocks on a passing play) is eighth-lowest among RBs as well. He’s also run 71 percent of the routes run by Chicago running backs this season, so he’s not losing work to anyone.
Jacksonville has given up the second-most receiving yards to backs this year (57.0), as their ‘backers struggle to stay with tailbacks when they run routes. Opposing RBs have run amok against them:
Why not go back to the well? We took Josh Jacobs’ rushing yards prop last week at 66.5, and the Packers RB1 responded with 73 yards. That was against the Rams, who give up the second-most rushing yards to RBs, so let’s try it again as Jacobs takes on the Cardinals, who are just behind L.A. in third-place, allowing RBs 122.4 yards per game. Jacobs has hit his over in three of five contests this season.
The Cardinals remain a bit of an enigma in terms of how good they can actually be this year, but one thing that seems pretty clear is that they can’t stop the run, as they’re giving up the fifth-most yards on the ground overall, while also allowing 4.6 yards per carry. We bet on Jordan Mason to cover his 80+ yard prop last week and found success, as he went for 89. Here are the other RBs to hit their over against Arizona this year:
Last year, when the Cowboys took on the Lions, CeeDee Lamb had one of the greatest receiving performances in recent memory, snagging 13 balls for a whopping 227 yards. We’re not expecting an encore of that magnitude, but we believe he should whizz by the prop sports betting sites are setting.
The worry is that the Lions watch last year’s tape and really key in on Lamb, but we believe he’ll be able to overcome that if they do. Lamb has only hit this number twice this season, but in the three games in which he went under, he was going against a tough AFC North pass defense.
The Lions’ ability to do the same seems dubious, at best. They’re giving up 218.1 yards per game to WRs, eight more than any other unit. Most recently, they’ve been taken to the cleaners by:
Breece Hall has been arguably the most disappointing player in the league this year from a fantasy perspective, but that’s got nothing to do with his receiving production. He runs routes on about 76 percent of snaps, but over the last two weeks, it’s been closer to 88 percent.
His 127 routes are second-most among RBs, and he has seen 4+ targets every week despite reduced production over the last two weeks (he hit this number and then some in the first three weeks). He’s nearly guaranteed to get back on the horse in Week 6, as he takes on a Bills defense giving up an NFL-high 62.4 receiving yards to RBs this year.
We successfully bet on Dare Ogunbowale to cover this prop against Buffalo last week, as he went for 57 yards. Justice Hill had 78 the week before, Travis Etienne had four receptions the week before that, De’Von Achane had 69 the week before that, and James Conner went for 33 in Week 1.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
