We had another strong showing last week, going 3-1 on our picks to the tune of +1.73 units. We’ll look to hit that elusive 4-0 this time around, and hopefully the Colts defense won’t come out of nowhere to thwart us this time. Check out our top player prop picks for Week 5 in the NFL below.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 10-6 (+2.98)
All odds provided by Betway.
Joe Mixon got off to a great start with Houston, but he’s been out for a few weeks now with an ankle issue, and he’s been ruled out again in Week 5. Dameon Pierce has also been on the shelf, and he remains questionable for this one, but even if he does play, he’s more likely to eat into Cam Akers’ reps rather than Dare Ogunbowale’s.
Pierce and Akers are early-down backs, while Ogunbowale has been taking on the role of the third-down, pass-catching back since Mixon’s injury. Ogunbowale has caught eight passes over the past three games, and in each of those outings, he went for 20+ receiving yards. While sports betting sites have yet to set his number with Pierce’s status still up in the air, we expect it to come in somewhere in the mid-teens. If the number is 20 or lower, the over is looking great here.
Buffalo has had a solid start to the season, but they’ve not been able to stem the tide of pass-catching backs so far. They’re allowing 62.5 receiving yards per game to backs, most in the NFL. Last week, Justice Hill went for 78, two weeks before that, De’Von Achane had 69, and in Week 1, James Conner had 33. Ogunbowale should find success through the air against this Bills defense just as these other backs did.
Many thought that the 49ers would struggle to maintain their identity in the ground game with reigning Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey on IR dealing with calf and Achilles issues. However, their downfall was greatly exaggerated, as the unheralded Jordan Mason has come in out of nowhere and produced like a top back in the NFL.
He’s already put up three 100-yard games, most in the NFL, and he’s also pacing the league in rushes (91), which means he’s always going to get a ton of opportunities. His 447 rushing yards rank him second in the league as well, which makes this the perfect matchup for our NFL betting purposes.
Arizona allowed the most rushing yards in football last year, and they’re giving up the sixth-most per game already this season. However, they’ve been especially bad against running backs, allowing them 125.3 rush yards per game, third-most in the league.
They’ve already been gashed by Brian Robinson (101 yards), David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (105 and 83), and James Cook (71). Jordan Mason should have no problem finding room to operate against this leaky defense, and no doubt he’ll get more than enough chances to do so anyhow.
Josh Jacobs has had a bit of an up and down start to his Packers tenure, but there is reason for optimism. He’s seen the seventh-most carries in the league, and he put up 84 and 151 rushing yards in his first two games for the Cheeseheads. However, he hasn’t had as much success in recent weeks, which is why his number is much lower than it otherwise might be.
He only had 43 yards against Tennessee, but that’s because the game was a blowout, which meant Jacobs was conserved on the sideline, playing just 52 percent of snaps. Last week, the Packers went down big early, which meant the game script held him in check once again, though he did still have 51 yards on just nine totes.
Now, he gets the porous, Aaron Donald-less defensive front of the Rams, and against them, we expect him to look a lot more like Week 1 and 2 Jacobs than the one we’ve seen in the last two weeks. No team in the league is allowing running backs more yards on the ground per game than the Rams (131.0).
Heck, they even allowed D’Andre Swift to go for 93 yards last week, and he’d been having arguably the worst season of any back in the league to that point. James Conner also put up 100 on this team, Mason put up 77, and David Montgomery put up 90+.
While Anthony Richardson hasn’t been officially ruled out, there is still discussion of pain tolerance and functionality in his injured oblique, so even if he does start, one hit would likely be all it took to send him back to the blue medical tent. With Joe Flacco in there, Michael Pittman Jr. is a much better betting proposition.
That QB indecision has left Pittman’s prop on the board, but we assume it will be in the 50-60 yard range, which is a great place for us. He had 100+ with Flacco under center last week, and that was against Pittsburgh’s elite defense. Imagine what they can do against this god-awful Jaguars pass defense, which is allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to receivers so far this year, at a whopping 193.5.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
