Several individual players and units have already proven themselves reliable (or not so much) through the first month of the NFL season. Let’s take a look at the cream of the player prop crop for Week 4’s NFL action.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 7-5 (+1.25)
All odds provided by Betway.
Despite allowing over 200+ rushing yards in their first two games, the Colts defense was able to stymie Chicago for just 63 yards on the ground.
Even despite that, the Colts are still allowing a season-high 136.3 rushing yards per game to running backs. While Swift struggled to find his footing against the worst defensive front in the league—which has been made even worse recently by the injury of DeForest Buckner—both Joe Mixon and Josh Jacobs saw 30+ carries for 150+ yards against this defense.
Enter Najee Harris and the rough and tumble Steelers running game. It’s nothing flashy or pretty, but they’ve been getting the job done, putting up the 12th-most rushing yards per game so far this year. Harris has been the tip of that spear, going for 70, 69, and 70 yards in his three starts this season. There was some worry after he was seen in a sling, but Mike Tomlin dispelled any worries during the week and he should be a full go.
His sidekick, Jaylen Warren, however, has been ruled out, which means Harris, who’s only played 53.5 percent of the snaps so far this year, should see a much heavier workload, though Cordarrelle Patterson will mix in as well. Harris has now gone over this total in his last six straight regular season games, which makes the -110 betting odds on this one hard to ignore.
One of the most reliable things NFL bettors have been able to count on so far this season is the Buccaneers defense’s inability to deal with running backs catching passes out of the backfield. We bet on Javonte Williams successfully last week, as the Broncos RB hit his over early in the second quarter, ultimately finishing with four grabs for 29 yards.
The week before that, Tampa allowed David Montgomery four receptions for 35 yards and Jahmyr Gibbs seven receptions for 22 yards, and in Week 1, Austin Ekeler had four receptions for 52 yards while Brian Robinson Jr. also put up three receptions for 49 yards. If there’s any clear trend in the league, it’s this one.
And that’s all before getting to what a good situation this is for Saquon Barkley in Week 4 against those Bucs. With his top two wideouts on the shelf, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is going to be looking for Barkley and tight end Dallas Goedert in the passing game early and often. They were the most targeted players last week, and should do so again here.
Barkley has had four receptions in back-to-back weeks and topped 20 receiving yards in Weeks 1 and 2. While he didn’t do much with his four grabs last week, going for just nine yards, we’d expect Nick Sirianni to scheme up a few more clever ways to get Barkley in space for big yardage, which will make the 22.5 receiving total we’re seeing from top sports betting sites a piece of cake for the Pro Bowler.
Most defenses can’t be good at everything, and that is especially true of the Ravens, who have the worst pass defense in the league and the best rush defense in the league through three weeks. They’ve been especially bad at defending tight ends in the seam and across the middle, which should be no surprise considering the offseason departure of All-Pro middle linebacker Patrick Queen.
Baltimore has given up 93.3 yards per game to tight ends so far, second-most in the league and about 20 yards more than the team with the next highest average. Jake Ferguson grabbed six of a whopping 11 targets for 95 yards last week for the Cowboys and the week before that Brock Bowers caught all nine of his looks for 98 yards. In Week 1, they slowed Travis Kelce to just 34 yards, but they allowed his backup, Noah Gray, to grab three balls for 37 yards.
Kincaid is playing over 60 percent of the snaps, but he’s seen 73 percent of the tight end targets. Kincaid has also topped this total in five of his last seven games, including playoffs. He’s coming off a three-reception, 41-yard outing last week, though those numbers could have been even higher if that game wasn’t such a blowout.
No team has allowed more yards to receivers than the Lions so far this year, as they have given up an eye-popping 203 yards through the air per game just to wideouts. Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson both had 64 yards last week against this defense. In Week 2, Chris Godwin put up 117, and in the season opener, Cooper Kupp gashed them for 110 yards while Tyler Johnson also contributed 79.
D.K. Metcalf has flown out of the gates this season and enters this game with back-to-back 100-yard games to his name. Metcalf has topped this number in seven of his last 12 outings, so he should have no problem keeping it up against a Lions defense rated as the third-worst in the league in pass coverage, per PFF.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
