NFL Week 18 Ravens-Browns, Steelers-Bengals Odds & Predictions

The NFL has reached the final week of the 2024 regular season. We start what promises to be an exceedingly mediocre Week 18 with a couple of pretty darn good matchups in the AFC North, both of which have playoff implications. You can expect three of these four teams to be playing hard for a win, so let’s get into our best bets for this juicy twin feature.

NFL Week 18 Saturday AFC North Odds & Predictions - January 4

All odds provided by Betway.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens - 4:30PM

Generations will come and go, dynasties will rise and fall, and empires will wax and wane between 20-point spread sightings in the NFL. 2025 must be some special year in the Mayan calendar. Here we are on the first day of the new year with NFL sportsbooks pushing a 20-point spread for the Baltimore Ravens over the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank in Maryland.

Baltimore’s moneyline is enough to make men weep tears of despair, but that point spread is even more absurd. And yet… If you’re looking for a team that can really lay the wood on someone, it’s Lamar Jackson and this group. They’re coming off a 29-point win over the playoff-bound Texans, and they beat the Giants by 21 a couple weeks before that. They also beat the Broncos by 31 and the Bills by 25. Three of those four are playoff-bound teams, and the other is a team chasing the top pick, much like the Browns.

This team can really run it up when they want to - and we think they want to here. They need to win this game to ensure they take the AFC North crown over the Steelers, who play later on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Browns have every reason not to win this game. Heck, they’re starting their 3rd-string QB, Bailey Zappe, when their top two are alive and well.

Cleveland doesn’t want to win this game, it’s on the road, and it’s a short week. We just can’t imagine a situation where the Browns are competitive in this one without Jameis Winston under center.

But hey, we’re not crazy either, okay. A 20-point spread is a 20-point spread. That’s to say, it’s untenable. So, we’ll buy a few points down to what we feel is a much more reasonable 17.5-point line.

We would also venture to say that, while Zappe is likely to struggle, he will be more capable than Dorian Thompson-Robinson in terms of moving the ball down the field. And considering the Ravens are averaging over 30 points on a regular day, Zappe should only need one touchdown drive for this 41-point over to hit.

Best Bets

• Baltimore Ravens Alternate -17.5 Point Spread (-148)
• Game Total Points Over 41.0 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers - 8PM

Mike Tomlin, Steelers players, and Steelers fans can talk the talk if they want, but it seems pretty clear: if you’re going to be a Wild Card in the AFC, you better be damn sure you get that No. 5 seed. If you get the No. 5 seed, you get to play the No. 4 Houston Texans, who have been wilting like a daisy in the winter frosts.

However, if the Steelers lose what some are deeming a “meaningless” game for them (if the Ravens win), then the Los Angeles Chargers win on Sunday, Pittsburgh will drop to the No. 6 seed and have to head back to Maryland to play the Ravens just a few weeks after they were humbled in that same stadium. Rivalry aside, anyone would want to play C.J. Stroud over Lamar Jackson right now.

So Pittsburgh wants to win, and obviously, the Bengals need a win and then a ton of help to make their own playoff dreams come true. The Steelers won the first matchup of the season on the back of a varied passing game that pushed them over 500 yards in total offense. With the way the Bengals have been playing, they’re going to need to repeat that effort.

We believe they can, as George Pickens will no doubt be a pest, and Pittsburgh’s stable of running backs—who combined for 241 scrimmage yards in that previous meeting—will also wear on Cincinnati’s suspect defense. What was clear about Pittsburgh’s strategy then was to keep it simple for Russell Wilson: either go short to a playmaker, or launch it deep and give Pickens a shot. It would be a surprise if they didn’t employ something similar here.

And they should have success. The only question is if their defense can cause as many game-changing turnovers as they did in that first game. That’s a little bit harder to predict, but we know they will only be able to stem the tide of Joe Burrow’s passing attack, not stop it. We like the over in this one, but we’re going to buy a few points down from the line we’re getting from Canadian sportsbooks, just to be safe.

In terms of a winner, it’s hard to bet on the Steelers with the way they’re playing, but we’re suckers for a great data point: Mike Tomlin is 21-7-3 ATS as a home underdog and 22-9 with a spread of two points or less (like this one). We’ll take the points and “the standard”.

Best Bets

• Pittsburgh Steelers Alternate +3.0 Point Spread (-138)
• Alternative Game Total Points Over 46.5 (-142)