We went 4-for-4 in Week 15. And darn it, if we didn’t do it again in Week 16! We’ve put together back-to-back perfect player prop cards—that’s what you call a certified heater! So, time for a heat check, no? Come along for the ride as we go for our third straight perfect player prop card in Week 17. It’s a bit of a shorter slate this week with games on so many days, but we still found some great value.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 41-23 (+13.12)
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Since Week 10, (discounting Week 14, when an injury kept Bucky Irving out of most of the game), the rookie has been seeing the lion’s share of ground touches. In those five games, Irving played 178 snaps, while White played 184. However, the rookie saw 81 carries (for 498 yards), while White toted the ball just 51 times (for 218 yards) during that same span.
On top of his stranglehold on the running game touches, Irving is going against the worst run defense in football. We have bet against Carolina’s run defense successfully several times over the last few weeks, and we have yet to fail.
They give up over 30 more yards per game on the ground than any other team (175.2, to be exact) and allow the most yards per carry (5.1). They’ve allowed a 100+ yard game to an opposing back in four straight games, including a few weeks ago, when Irving went for 152 against this unit.
On the other side of that Panthers-Buccaneers coin is a plus matchup for a more obscure member of Carolina’s passing attack. Tommy Tremble isn’t blowing anybody away with his talent or production, but he’s had his moments. He has gone over this number four times this season, including a three-catch, 33-yard performance last week.
He’s had a few injuries and no-show games, but we believe the matchup here and the line we’re getting from Canadian betting sites is too good a combo to pass up. Tremble has gone against the Bucs once already this year. In that game, he caught five of eight targets for 77 yards. We don’t expect that much from him this time around, but he should be able to cover this number comfortably.
Tampa Bay is giving up 67.8 yards per game to TEs, 2nd-most in football. They’re also allowing the 7th-most targets to TEs and the 4th-most TE receptions per game. Since Carolina’s Week 11 bye, Jake Ferguson has had six for 40, Stone Smartt had five for 50, Michael Mayer had seven for 68, Tremble had his big game, and Theo Johnson had three for 39.
The only run defense that comes close to matching Carolina’s for futility is this Giants unit. The team has pretty clearly given up on the season, even on the field, which is sad to see. But our pity doesn’t mean we can’t take advantage of New York’s struggles.
They are giving up over 156 rushing yards per game during their current 10-game losing streak, second only to Carolina during that time. Overall, they’ve allowed 114.7 rushing yards per game to running backs, and Bijan Robinson is coming off a 22-carry, 94-yard performance against them.
Jonathan Taylor just so happens to be coming on strong to cap off this up and down season for him. He started out with 80+ rushing yards in three of his first four games, but then he missed three games to injury. He was up and down for a few weeks after that, but he’s coming off a 218-performance. He had 107 and 96 yards in the two weeks prior, so we like him to stay hot against this soft Giants defense.
Saquon Barkley has 1,838 rushing yards this year, and he needs 268 yards to break Eric Dickerson’s single-season record. With the Eagles essentially locked into the No. 2 seed and starting QB Jalen Hurts out with a concussion, we can expect Barkley to see a ton of work against the Cowboys.
Even with NFL sportsbooks giving us such a high number, we’re not fretting. Barkley has topped 120 rushing yards in five of his last eight games. Last time these teams played, Barkley played just 35 snaps and took 14 carries, both 2nd-lowest of the season for him. That’s because they blew the Cowboys out 34-6, and so was allowed to rest.
We don’t foresee that this time around. The Cowboys are playing solid ball, and we expect them to stay in this one with Kenny Pickett at the controls for Philly. The Eagles will have to lean on Barkley, and he will be happy to oblige.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
