It took us 16 weeks, but we finally earned the elusive 4-for-4 on our player prop best bets on Sunday. That nearly doubled our unit count for the season up to +9.48, and if you parlayed that quartet together, you had yourself a very merry Sunday last week. Let’s keep the good times rolling here as we look for the best player prop value across the board at the top NFL betting sites.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 37-23 (+9.48)
NFL Week 16 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
There are few things you can count on when you’re betting on the NFL. That’s kind of the idea, right? But this season, we have managed to uncover something of a loophole thanks to the Kansas City Chiefs. For a few weeks there, fading the Chiefs spread was the move, but for most of the season, you could also count on the opposing tight end to have a big day.
They’re allowing 74.6 receiving yards to tight ends this season, the most in the league by a solid five yards. Last week, we bet on a backup tight end, Jordan Akins, to cover against this defense, and while he did make us sweat, he got there in the end. In the nine games since their bye, the Chiefs have allowed at least one opposing TE to hit their over eight times.
This week, the man with the honor of going up against K.C. and their strangely specific defensive issue is Houston’s Dalton Schultz. The veteran hasn’t exactly put on a show in 2024, as he’s only topped this number thrice so far this season. However, this is an example of matchup over player form.
Jahmyr Gibbs fantasy managers rejoice! While it’s a shame that his buddy and backfield mate, David Montgomery, is injured, it opens up a huge amount of opportunities for Gibbs. He’s been the better and more efficient back for most of the past two years, and now he can prove it with the backfield all to himself here.
While it is true that Gibbs has only rushed for 90+ yards three times this season, that was all while averaging about 13 carries a game. There’s no way he doesn’t blow past that average on Sunday against the Bears. He should be seeing far more than 20 carries if we get the game script we’re expecting.
Last time these teams met, just a few weeks ago, Gibbs made good on every opportunity he got, taking nine carries for 87 yards. Chicago hasn’t been great against the run this season in general, allowing the 2nd-most rushing yards per game to RBs (115.6) and allowing the 6th-highest yards per carry mark in the league. Aaron Jones took 18 for 86 against Chicago last week, and Isaac Guerendo went for 78 on 15 totes the week before.
The Falcons made the massive call to bench their $180 million man, Kirk Cousins, in favor of rookie Michael Penix Jr. While we believe in Penix’s potential, they’re not going to take the training wheels off in his first career NFL start. This is a very winnable game for the Falcons, and they are likely to rely on their solid rushing attack over a rookie QB.
The matchup calls for that approach anyway. The Giants allow the 2nd-most rushing yards per game (143.7) and they also allow 4.9 yards per carry, 2nd-most in the NFL. They’ve looked a little bit better over the last two weeks, but even if they can slow Bijan Robinson down, they won’t be able to stop him.
We expect the Falcons to be playing from ahead for most of this game, which means Robinson, and probably even Tyler Allgeier, should get tons of opportunities. It’s also worth noting that Robinson has seen 75+ percent of the snaps over the last three weeks, so he’s also starting to push Allgeier into the background.
Let us tell you about our Panthers-RB secret. Carolina has by far the worst run defense in the league. They allow running backs to rush for 141.5 yards per game, most in the NFL by a whopping 25 yards per game. They also give up the most rushing yards per game overall (173.0) and the most yards per rush (5.0).
They’ve allowed a running back to go for 120+ in three straight games for crying out loud. Enter James Conner, who, as usual, is plugging along as one of the most reliable, if not exciting, RBs in the NFL this year. He has rushed for 90+ in back-to-back games coming into this matchup with Carolina.
Conner has also beat up on the worst defensive units: he’s gone for 90+ in five games against teams in the bottom eight in rushing yards allowed to RBs per game. Get his rushing prop while sports betting sites are still offering it for so cheap.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
