We went with the ol’ split last week, going 2-2 thanks to a surprisingly stingy Giants rush defense and a Will Dissly halftime injury. Either way, we pushed our season record to 33-23 on our player prop best bets. We’ve delved deep into the libraries of the top NFL betting sites to find the best player prop value for Week 15. So, let’s dive into our four best bets for this weekend!
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 33-23 (+5.84)
All odds provided by Betway.
David Njoku was supposed to be in for a big performance this week, but after three DNPs this week, his inactive status for Sunday seems all but certain. In his absence, backup Jordan Akins will get a chance to prove himself against a Chiefs defense that is allowing 78.1 yards per game to tight ends, most in the NFL by a significant margin.
Last week, we bet on Chargers tight end Will Dissly to cover 34.5 yards against this same Chiefs defense. He had 19 yards at half before he was chased from the game with an injury. His backup, Stone Smartt, promptly entered and put up a career high. (More on Smartt soon.)
Akins has stayed involved in the offense whether Njoku is in or not. He’s actually hit this number five times this year despite only seeing limited snaps with Njoku in there. Apart from their first meeting with Brock Bowers and the Raiders, the Chiefs have allowed an opposing TE to cover his receiving yards prop in every game this season.
Malik Nabers is no doubt frustrated, and he has every right to be. He’s had to deal with three different starting QBs during his rookie year—and yet he has continued to perform up to the standard we all expected when he was drafted. Despite the debacle under center, Nabers has impressed more than the other two (Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr.) that were considered along with Nabers to be the “big three” of WR prospects during this draft cycle.
The other thing we love here is the line we’re getting on this prop from sports betting sites. Nabers’ 64.5 number was impossible to ignore: he has gone for 64+ receiving yards in eight of his 11 appearances this season. He has also seen double digit targets in eight of 11 games, so he’s definitely going to get his opportunities here.
And then there’s that Ravens pass defense. They are allowing more passing yards per game (264.9) than any other team, and specifically the 3rd-most to WRs (177.1). They have allowed an opposing wideout to go for 65+ yards in seven of their last nine games, and they’ll often blow past that number.
When the Cowboys re-signed veteran Ezekiel Elliott this offseason, it was expected that he would split backfield duties with the lesser-known Rico Dowdle. However, it became clear early on in the campaign that Elliott had in fact gone over the hill. He has ceded reps to Dowdle slowly but surely throughout the season.
While Elliott is still claiming goal line work to the chagrin of many a Dowdle fantasy manager, the younger back has clearly taken the backfield for himself. Two weeks ago, Elliott played just nine snaps with one carry, and last week he had just six and two. Meanwhile, Dowdle saw 53 snaps and 22 carries two weeks ago, following that up with 46 snaps and 18 carries. Dowdle went for 110+ rush yards in both games.
This week, he gets the pleasure of going up against the worst run defense in football. While we think the Panthers are going to get the win here, we expect the score to remain close, which should give Dowdle tons of opportunities to rip this Carolina unit. The Panthers are giving up 138.6 rush yards per game to RBs this year, over 20 yards more than the next-worst unit. They’re also bottom of the league in rush yards allowed per attempt, at 5.0.
As we mentioned in our Jordan Akins section, we took a shot at the Chargers’ starting tight end Will Dissly last week. Dissly was well on his way to covering his prop when he suffered a major shoulder injury. Up stepped Stone Smartt, a third year player with just 18 receptions and 216 yards to his name. He promptly put up three receptions for 54 yards, both career highs.
That was against the worst TE-defending defense in the league, the Chiefs. Now, Smartt gets to make his first start of the season against the second-worst TE-defending defense in the league in the Buccaneers. Tampa is the only other team apart from the Chiefs that allows over 70 yards per game to TEs. Theo Johnson, Tommy Tremble, and Michael Mayer are just a few of the TEs to cover their props vs. the Bucs recently.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
