I guess you can’t have it all, eh? We went a perfect 7-for-7 on our 1 PM best bets in Week 13, which meant we struggled with our player props, going 1-3 for just the third time this year. We’re still in a comfortable place for the season overall, however, sitting at 31-21 (+6.02 units) heading into Week 14. Now, it’s on to this exciting slate’s player prop buffet as we search for the best value NFL betting sites will allow.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 31-21 (+6.02)
All odds provided by Betway.
Even with Tyjae Spears returning to the fold last weekend, Tony Pollard still dominated the Tennessee backfield against the Commanders. He played 73 percent of the snaps and saw 12 of the 13 running back touches on the day. Spears might see a few more looks this week, but Pollard is clearly the lone RB1 at this point.
Pollard has been one of the most reliable receiving running backs in the league this year. He’s tied for 9th among RBs with 37 receptions, and Will Levis is looking at him even more, as he sits 5th with 51 targets. He’s had 4+ targets in five of his last six games, and has gone for 19+ receiving yards in four of those.
The Jaguars have struggled with covering backs running patterns in the passing game all year. Last week, we took Joe Mixon’s receiving prop against this defense, and he fell just two yards short. However, in the 11 games before that, they’d allowed 10 running backs to go for 20+ receiving yards in a game.
If this was 1994, Saquon Barkley would be the runaway MVP this year. He leads the league in rushing attempts (246), rushing yards (1,499), and yards per rush (6.1). The fact that he is leading the league in both volume (carries) and efficiency (yards per carry) is mind-bogglingly Jim Brown-like.
He has rushed for 100+ yards in six of his last seven, but even that won’t be enough this week, with sportsbooks boosting his line way above the century mark. That did give us pause, but with Barkley seeing 23+ carries in three straight and the Eagles likely to be playing with a lead against the lowly Panthers, we couldn’t help ourselves.
While the Panthers have been playing much better ball in most areas of late, the rush defense is not one of them. They give up 137.7 rushing yards per game to running backs, which is just a hair under 20 yards more than the next worst outfit. They’ve also allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of their last four. Barkley should have a field day, especially considering the Panthers also give up 4.8 yards per carry, which is 6th-most in the league.
Alvin Kamara is well-regarded as one of the best RBs in the league. He’s a perennial Pro Bowler, but that’s not because he’s just a great rusher, it has a lot to do with his receiving ability. In fact, in 113 career games, he has surpassed 100+ yards just 10 times. However, three of those instances have come this year, including two in the last four weeks.
Kamara has been used much more as a traditional back this year, sitting 6th in rushes with 206, which is already the 3rd-highest single-season total of his career even with five games to go. His usage has also been way up recently, playing 77, 81, 73, and 86 percent of snaps over the last four weeks.
The veteran comes into a plus matchup on Sunday as well, with the lowly Giants defense welcoming Kamara and company to the Big Apple. The G-Men give up the 2nd-most rushing yards per game to running backs (118.1) and are tied with Kamara’s own Saints defense for the highest yards per carry allowed this year, at 5.1.
Listen, when you’re betting player props, of course the player is crucial. Duh. BUT, the opponent is arguably just as important. And in this instance, it’s even more so. Will Dissly has been a nice performer for the Chargers, posting 30+ yards in four of his last six games, but this pick is really all about Kansas City’s defense.
For some reason, their linebackers and safeties simply cannot defend opposing TEs this year. It’s truly remarkable, because they’re one of the best units overall, but in this one area they are absolutely abysmal.
In 12 games this year, the Chiefs have allowed 12 tight ends to hit the over on their receiving prop. They kept Brock Bowers under wraps in their first meeting with the Raiders… and that’s the only game this year where they didn’t allow an opposing tight end to hit their prop.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
