Fool me once, shame on me, but fool me twice, shame on you Josh Downs. Oh well. We’ll take another 3-1 card, as our other three Week 12 bets hit by comfortably safe distances. We’re now up to 30-18 on the campaign, and we’ll continue chasing the elusive 4-0 in Week 13. We’ve combed through the top NFL betting sites and found the best player prop values on the board on Sunday.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 30-18 (+8.11)
All odds provided by Betway.
When Joe Mixon is healthy, he’s clearly a three-down back. He’s played 77 percent of the snaps or more in each of the last three, and C.J. Stroud is not looking for any other backs in the passing game.
Mixon has seen 16 targets over the last three weeks, and the rest of Houston’s running backs have received a grand total of one. Mixon has seen 3+ targets in six of seven games since returning from injury and has hit this number in three straight weeks.
That’s all well and good, but the real reason we’re taking Mixon this week is the matchup. The Jaguars have been part of the holy trinity of defenses that can’t stop running backs catching passes out of the backfield to save their lives. (More on the rest of that triumvirate in a second)
The Jags are giving up 48.8 receiving yards per games to RBs, 3rd-most in the NFL. They have allowed 11 RBs to cover their receiving yards props this year, including Houston’s Dare Ogunbowale, who had 47 yards against this defense in Week 4.
About that holy trinity we were talking about. If the Jags and Buccaneers are like Crassus and Pompey, the Bills are like Julius Caesar. They are just awful at defending running backs in the passing game.
If there’s a better pass-catching back in the NFL than Christian McCaffrey, we haven’t seen ‘em yet. CMC is arguably as good a receiver as he is a runner—and he’s a darn good runner. He’s only played in three games this season, but he’s seen 16 targets in those games, going for 68, 27, and 37 through the air. He’s also played 88, 92, and 84 percent of the snaps, so he’s back back. There’s no committee in San Fran.
But let’s get back to that whole Caesar thing. The Bills are allowing 50.7 receiving yards a game to running backs, the most in the league. But not only have they been bad. They’ve been consistently bad. They allowed eight running backs to go for 30+ receiving yards during their first nine games. They’ve been a bit stingier over the last two games, but CMC is a different animal compared to Kareem Hunt and Tyler Goodson.
We rolled with Bucky Irving last week, and he rewarded us handsomely, ripping off a 50+ yard run early in the game to give us peace of mind. We can’t tell you how much we appreciate that, Buck. After torching the 3rd-worst run defense in football for 88 yards on 12 carries last week, what do we think he can do to the worst run defense in football (160.5 rush yards per game) this week?
We reckon something similar. The Panthers have been playing better ball as a team lately, but they still struggle to contain running backs. They’re not only the worst run defense, but the worst against RBs too, and at 129.5 rush yards allowed per game, they give up nearly 10 yards more than the next worst.
The Panthers have allowed 11 RBs to rush for 60+ yards in 11 games, and that includes at least one in all but two of those contests. Irving has also been seeing more and more snaps with each passing week. Since Week 9, he has seen his snap count go from 19, to 28, to 34 last week. He’s also out-performed Rachaad White in each of the last two games, both in carries and yards.
The Ravens have an unusually bad defense, as they sit 31st in total passing defense this year. Apart from a predictably low-scoring tilt with the rival Steelers, Baltimore has been in a shootout nearly every week.
That will not change in Week 13, when they welcome the high-flying Philadelphia Eagles to town. Saquon Barkley’s been getting all the plaudits lately, but it’s A.J. Brown that’s the best play against the Ravens’ leaky secondary this week.
At 185.8 yards per game, the Ravens allow the 3rd-most to wideouts in the NFL. Brown has also been quietly reliable this year. He’s gone for 80+ in six of eight games, including a ho-hum 109 last week while Barkley was setting the world on fire. Baltimore has allowed six WRs to post 80+ yards against them over the last five games.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
