NFL Week 12 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Bucky Irving, RB, TB - Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. NYG
Over the past five games, Rachaad White has played 13 percent more snaps than Bucky Irving, but Irving has seen 13 more carries. Irving has also gained 245 yards, three TDs, and 15 first downs to White’s 191, one, and nine.
Now, Irving has only hit this prop number four times this year, including last week. However, he has been a lot more involved over the last five weeks, and seems to be pushing himself to the forefront of the Bucs running game with every passing performance.
The truth is, with the Giants run defense they’re going up against here, both backs could hit their props, though we’re more confident in Irving getting the lion’s share. The Giants have allowed the 7th-most rush yards this season, and they’re allowing a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry. They’re allowing 116.9 yards per game to RBs specifically, which is 4th-highest in football. The Giants have also given up more 15+ yard runs than any team (24), which fits perfectly with Irving’s home run style (seven such runs this season).
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET - Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. IND
Has there been anyone more reliable this season than Jahmyr Gibbs? The guy has been a machine for this no-holds-barred Lions offense. He has rushed for at least 63 yards in nine of his 10 games this year, a total only matched by Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Over the last five games, Gibbs has gone for 71, 65, 79, and a pair of 100-yarders.
Both Gibbs and plodder David Montgomery generally see 12-15 carries per game, but Gibbs is clearly the more efficient of the two. Considering 63 is basically his floor, we believe even with another timeshare in Week 12, Gibbs should hit this number.
The Colts are giving up 143.1 rushing yards per game this season, 5th-most in the NFL. Breece Hall went for 78 on them last week, James Cook got them for 80 the week before, Aaron Jones had 64 the week before that, and Joe Mixon went over 100 the week before that. Gibbs should have a field day, especially since we were expecting sports betting sites to set this line at or over 70 yards.
Josh Downs, WR, IND - Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. DET
Josh Downs has been the best wideout for the Colts this year, despite the massive deal they just gave Michael Pittman Jr. Whether Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson, Downs has produced. He’s leading the team in both targets and receptions this year.
He’s had 60+ yards in seven of eight games, including 84 last week, 72 the week before that, and 100+ a couple weeks prior. While the Gibbs line was slightly surprising, but this one at 53.5 is a real shocker from NFL betting sites.
Up next for Downs are the Lions, who have been nothing but dominant this season. However, their pass defense, as in seasons past, has been something of an issue, especially now that it’s dealing with a few injuries. They’re giving up 188.7 yards per game to wideouts, which is the 2nd-highest number in the league. That has a lot to do with them going up big early and their opponents having to chase. We expect something similar to happen this week with Downs and the Colts. Case in point: last week they beat the Jaguars 52-6, but Jacksonville’s top wideout, Brian Thomas, still had 82 yards on the day.
Baker Mayfield, QB, TB - Over 10.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. NYG
The quarterback rushing prop is always a tough one to call because a lot of times it rests on one play. However, Baker Mayfield has been known to run the ball a bit more often than most QBs like him that are not viewed as “dual threats”. Mayfield has hit this number in seven of 10 games this year, including five of the last six. He’s also rushed 3+ times in all but one game.
Luckily for us, he had just three yards rushing his last time out, which resulted in the line on Baker’s rushing prop dropping to its lowest level since Week 4. Over the last few weeks, this prop has been at around 12-14 yards, so there’s a ton of value here. If that wasn’t enough, stick this in your pipe and smoke it: the Giants allow 29.4 rushing yards per game to QBs, 3rd-most in the NFL.
