NFL Week 11 Player Prop Best Bets & Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
George Pickens, WR, BAL - Over 69.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. BAL
There are some teams that you just get up for a little more than others. For Steelers WR1 George Pickens, that team has definitely been the Ravens. Not that he’s unique in that, the Ravens are the team against which most Steelers players want to make their mark. Few have done it so consistently against them as Pickens has in his short 2+ years in the NFL, though.
In his first ever game against the Ravens, in 2022, he had three receptions for 78 yards. He didn’t figure much in the return matchup later that year, but in Week 5 of 2023, he caught six balls for 130 yards, including the game-winning 41-yard bomb to seal the win for the Steelers.
On top of his history with the Ravens franchise is the matchup with their current iteration. While he has had success against Ravens secondaries in seasons past, this is by far the worst bunch they’ve had since he entered the league. They’re the worst pass defense in the NFL this year and they also give up the most receiving yards specifically to WRs. Need we mention that Pickens has topped 70 yards in all three of Russell Wilson’s starts, going for 111, 74, and 91?
Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL - Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. PIT
Staying with the best game on the Week 11 slate, we take a look at someone who has not fared particularly well in this Steelers-Ravens rivalry: Lamar Jackson. He’s only 2-4 against Pittsburgh, and his 66.8 passer rating against them is his worst against any single opponent. However, he’s always been able to run on the Steelers defense, and up until this year, that has always been a weakness for the Steel Curtain.
In 2024, the Steelers are allowing QBs just under 7 rushing yards per game, second-fewest in the league. However, they haven’t faced a ton of mobile QBs, and the ones they have faced have chosen not to run rather than failing at doing so. Lamar is not going to abandon that part of his game, especially when it’s been his most reliable asset against Pittsburgh.
In 2019, he rushed 14 times for 70 yards, in 2020, 16 for 65, in 2021, 8 for 55, and in 2023, 6 for 45. If you noticed those numbers dropping, bravo, but that last number is still larger than his rush yards prop. And that’s the point of this bet: you’ll never see NFL betting sites setting Jackson’s line this low again. This is the lowest rush yards prop Lamar has had in over two years, and considering he’s hit it in seven of 10 games this year, we’re all over this one at -110 odds.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET - Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. JAX
This is another line that was offering value we simply couldn’t ignore. Going up against the third-worst overall pass defense and the fourth-worst at specifically stopping running backs in the passing game, one would’ve expected Jahmyr Gibbs’ line to be in the mid 20s. Instead, we get it in the mid-teens. Hallelujah.
Gibbs has hit this number in six of nine games this year, and he has seen an average of three targets per game over the last five weeks. Jacksonville, for their part, is giving up 46.3 receiving yards per game to RBs. While our bet against them in this respect fell flat last week, we don’t think they’re going to get lucky two weeks in a row.
Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF - Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. SEA
He’s back, and he looks as good as ever. After just 19 touches in his season debut last week, we’re expecting Christian McCaffrey to get a bit of a larger slice of the pie with the 49ers going up against his favorite opponent: the Seahawks. Of the 10 teams he’s played at least three times in his career, his 115.8 rushing yards per game against Seattle lead the way.
He has played them thrice as a member of the 49ers, and all three times he rushed for 100+ yards. He also put up 87 and 105 yards in his two games against them as a member of the Panthers. Good news here is that the Seahawks give up the second-most rushing yards per game to RBs, allowing 4.8 yards a clip. James Cook, Bijan Robinson, Isaac Guerendo, and Tyrone Tracy, among others, have all hit the century mark against this Seahawks D this year.
