Last week was tough. Not because we didn’t do well—because we did—but because we fell just three Josh Downs yards short of our perfect 4-for-4 week. No matter, we banked another 3-1 weekend, with our three picks blowing by their numbers with time to spare. We like a comfy cover. But I digress, we go again in Week 10, so check out our latest best bets for the NFL’s player prop slate.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 23-13 (+6.74)
All odds provided by Betway.
Jonathan Taylor is averaging 3.2 targets per game through his last five outings, and he’s turned that into 10 receptions. He’s put up just 11 and 12 receiving yards in his last two outings, but Flacco targeted him five times last week.
During those five games, other backs for the Colts have seen just six combined targets. Backup Trey Sermon isn’t a great player, and his strength is definitely not catching the ball, so Taylor is the main man in the passing game.
We love Taylor, and he’s been playing a ton since his return, but the real key here is the Buffalo Bills defense. Without Matt Milano in there, they have been extremely susceptible to RBs in the passing game this season. They have seen a running back cover a receiving yards prop in seven of nine games this season. In a couple of those, two backs on the same team hit their overs. We’ve bet against this defense in this situation in four of the last five weeks, and we’ve hit it every time. Let’s keep it rolling.
Surprised to see him on our card already? So are we, but we simply could not ignore the combination of matchup and value from NFL betting sites here. Christian McCaffrey is set to make his season debut this weekend after putting in a full practice on Friday. He probably won’t play his usual 90 percent of snaps, but we expect him to get a solid workload.
Even if he is on a pitch count, he’s more likely to play in passing situations, where the guy who’s been filling in, Jordan Mason, hasn’t factored in much this year. He has caught just eight balls in eight games, so with CMC back in the mix, Mason’s unlikely to see the field on third downs and two-minute drills.
If McCaffrey gets anywhere close to his normal share, he should blow by this number for two reasons. One, CMC has gone for 25+ receiving yards in 20 of his 26 career regular season games for the 49ers. He hit the mark in each of his last three regular season games last season, and eclipsed it in all three playoff games to boot.
Two, is that the Buccaneers have been awful on defense this year. They have been specifically bad against the pass, where they are allowing 255.9 yards per game, third-worst in the league. They’ve allowed opposing RBs 49.4 receiving yards per game this year, second-most in the NFL. Eight of their nine games have seen an opposing running back cover their receiving yards prop. CMC is going to be that guy this time around.
Last one, we promise. We’ve just had so much success with running back receiving props this year, we can’t help ourselves. Aaron Jones has always been a solid threat in the passing game, and trading in his cheesehead for Vikings horns hasn’t changed that: he’s averaging 30.6 receiving yards per game on the year.
He’s gone over 23 yards through the air in every game but two. Six of eight ain’t bad. But even better, is that he’s going up against the Jaguars, who give up just a tad less to running backs than the Bucs do, at 49.0 per game even, third-most in football. Saquon Barkley had 40 against them last week, Jamycal Hasty had 49 a couple of weeks before that, and both D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson put up 25+ the week before that.
We usually like to keep our props to lower prop numbers from sports betting sites, but this feels like it could be a special week for Justin Jefferson. He has a lot of those, if you didn’t know. As we already said, the Jaguars’ defense is no good, giving up 264.3 passing yards per game, second-most in the league. JJ has topped this prop in two straight.
The 175.1 yards they allow specifically to receivers is fourth-most in football, and they’ve been gashed a few times. Guys like Brian Thomas, DeVonta Smith, and Romeo Doubs have put up impressive days against this secondary recently. What do you think the best WR in football is going to do? Especially considering his best buddy from LSU, Ja’Marr Chase, just put on an absolute show on TNF. You’re kidding if you think that didn’t add extra fuel to the fire for JJ this week.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
