We had our worst week of the playoffs in the Conference Championships, as our Travis Kelce prop was the only one to hit as all of our other picks decided to forget about the patterns and trends they left for us.
Not to worry, because the Super Bowl will be a star-studded affair with tons of awesome opportunities for value player props available. We won’t be looking at moneyline or spread odds, but we’ll be weighing all the best Super Bowl 58 player props from the top NFL betting sites.
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Brock Purdy isn’t exactly known as a running QB, but the second-year man can hoof it when he needs to. He proved that during this 49ers playoff run, scrambling for crucial first downs against the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.
A big reason Purdy ran around more than usual against the Lions and Packers is because both of those defenses produce a ton of pressure: Detroit had the highest pressure rate in the league and the Packers were seventh in that regard. The Chiefs happen to be a team that brings a ton of pressure as well, finishing second behind the Lions in pressure rate.
Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo blitzed at the seventh-highest rate in the league during the regular season, and he’s doubled down on that trend in the postseason, which means Purdy will be seeing a lot of collapsing pockets which should push him to step up or roll out and look for yardage with his legs.
Purdy ran five times for 48 yards against the Lions and six times for 16 yards against the Packers the week before. He did hit the under on his rushing attempts prop in his final six regular season appearances, but he went over in eight of his first 10 outings in 2023.
All three QBs who went against the Chiefs in the playoffs went for three or more rushes. In Week 18, Easton Stick carried 13 times, Jake Browning had seven the week before, and Aidan O’Connell had four the week before that. Purdy should be able to keep that trend going, and with +140 odds, the value is there and then some.
The Chiefs are looking to become the first back-to-back #SuperBowl champions since 2005.
— Betting Top 10 - Canada (@Bettingtop10C) February 9, 2024
If they win, they'd be just the eighth #NFL team to pull off the feat.
Can they do it? Or will the 49ers win their first championship since 1995?
Bet on the game: https://t.co/dQQOcw5n9U pic.twitter.com/A8mA2gxR4z
The only player prop we hit last week came courtesy of Travis Kelce, who has continued to be an all-time playoff performer even in his age 34 campaign. There are a couple of reasons to doubt he continues his elite play against the 49ers, however.
The 49ers didn’t give up much to opposing tight ends this season, and the same LBs who held Kelce to 43 yards in the 2019 Super Bowl, Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner, will be present once again.
However, all signs have been pointing to a downturn for Kelce this year, and he has responded by playing his best ball of the season over the past month, when it has mattered most. And that’s kind of been his bit over the last half decade.
He’s gone for 71+ yards in 16 of his 21 playoff appearances all-time, but he’s been especially potent over the last four playoff runs. Since the 2020 postseason, Kelce has played in 12 postseason games, and he has gone for at least 71 in every single one. Now that is what we call consistency.
K.C.’s lack of secondary receiving options could be a blessing and a curse, as it will lead to added attention on Kelce from both the 49ers defense and his QB, Patrick Mahomes.
He may be the best quarterback in the world today, but Mahomes still relies on his security blanket like any other signal caller, and the 23 receptions on 27 targets the aging tight end has notched during this playoff run show that the connection has not waned whatsoever.
Kelce has been consistent in the playoffs in recent years, but Christian McCaffrey has been consistent period since he joined the 49ers last year, averaging 120.1 scrimmage yards over 26 regular season games with the team.
Despite the wide range of weapons available to the 49ers, CMC remains the engine for this offense, and that has been just as true during the postseason as it was during the regular season.
The Chiefs defense has been elite this year, but one of the holes in their unit has been their ability to stop the run. The Bills pummeled the Chiefs in the trenches a few weeks ago to the tune of 182 rushing yards, though the Dolphins and Ravens didn’t challenge them much in that regard.
Kansas City gave up 100+ rush yards to all but three of their regular season opponents, and finished the campaign 18th in total rush defense. They were also tied for 24th in yards per carry allowed, giving up 4.5 a tote.
The 49ers are going to rely on the running game early and often, and that’s what CMC needs: volume. He can bang his head against a wall for three quarters without getting much before busting off a 60-yarder in the fourth. He never stops coming, and Kyle Shanahan knows that. CMC has also topped 125 scrimmage yards in his last seven straight full games.
It’s the Super Bowl, so we have to go with one prop that’s a little out of left field. While the odds aren’t great for this prop, you can pretty much lock it in based on Kyle Juszczyk and Kyle Shanahan’s history together.
The All-Pro fullback doesn’t usually get more than a couple of touches per game, but Shanahan nearly always draws up at least one play for Juszczyk each week, especially when it’s a big game. For example, he had three catches for 39 yards and a touchdown the last time these two teams met in the Super Bowl back in 2019.
He also had two receptions in the Conference Championship against Detroit, one of which was clearly drawn up just for him. He didn’t get a look against the Packers, but he’d seen 2+ targets in his final three regular season games, discounting the meaningless Week 18 contest.
The Super Bowl is where offensive gurus love to strut their stuff, and we’d expect Shanahan to have a trick play that ends in Juszczyk ready to go against the Chiefs. Again, the odds leave much to be desired, but all he needs is one play for this to hit, which is what makes it such a fun proposition.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
