NFL MNF Cowboys vs. Texans Betting Picks & Player Props

Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans Betting Picks & Player Props - Nov. 18 @ 8:15PM E.T.

All odds provided by Betway.

Team	Moneyline	Point Spread	Total
Dallas Cowboys (3-6)	+275	+7.0 (-105)	O41.5 (-110)
Houston Texans (6-4)	-350	-7.0 (-115)	U41.5 (-110)

With Dak Prescott now on injured reserve—which is not to say he was impressive before his injury anyway—Lamb’s value has plummeted as well, leaving Dallas with a negligible amount of talent, and a lot of wasted money. That’s how they’ve arrived here at 3-6—and a tanking strategy should be on the table for Jerry Jones for the first time in many years.

Starting in Prescott’s stead will be Cooper Rush, who has been a backup for his entire NFL career. While some will say he’s “serviceable”, there’s a reason no team ever took a chance on him as their QB1: he’s just not that good. Since coming in for Prescott in Week 9, Rush has gone 26-for-48 for 160 yards and a TD for a passer rating of 68.1. He’s also lost two fumbles.

He was replaced by Trey Lance late in last week’s blowout loss, but Mike McCarthy says Rush will be back in the starting lineup for Week 11, which is good news for the Houston Texans.

You wouldn’t call this a must-win for Houston, they have a two-game lead in their division, the AFC South. But considering they’ve lost two straight and three of four since starting off 5-1, they must feel like they have to have this one, especially considering the poor quality of competition.

Perhaps not coincidentally, top wideout Nico Collins went down just before this recent run of poor performances, and the Texans are 4-1 this year with him in the lineup. That makes his return this week that much more impactful.

Whether it’s Lance or Rush in there, the Texans elite pass rush will cause it problems. They’re tied for 7th in sacks, with 29, 4th in pressures, with 98, and tied for 4th in pressure percentage, at 27.5. That should swing the game firmly in Houston’s favor, which is why we actually like the spread we’re getting here from sports betting sites. However, we like to play it safe, so we’ll still buy it down half a point to avoid any push.

When it comes to the over/under for this game, we’ve only got eyes for the under, believe it or not. The Cowboys have been struggling to score all season, and their offense under Rush last week looked even worse. They’ve scored fewer than 10 points in two of their last four games. Houston, meanwhile, hasn’t been putting up numbers like you might expect; they haven’t scored more than 23 since Week 6. We’re gonna buy a few points here, but the under seems like the only way to fly on Monday night.

Game Best Bets:

Houston Texans Alternative -6.5 Point Spread (-132)
Alternative Game Total Points Under 45.5 (-188)

Cowboys vs. Giants Player Prop Picks

The Cowboys defense has really struggled under Mike Zimmer this year, but a closer look at the numbers says it’s not so simple. Their pass rush is producing the second-best pressure rate (29.0) in the NFL. They are also in the top half of the NFL when it comes to passing yards allowed, though they have admittedly given up the 2nd-highest passer rating to opponents.

Those reasons, as well as the game script we expect with Houston dominating, point us to the Texans’ running game and Joe Mixon. The RB has scored in every game he’s finished this year, and he’s rushed for 100+ in five of those six. You can’t miss with him on Monday, whether you go for his anytime TD odds (-188) or the over on his rushing yards prop (86.5).

On the Dallas side, Micah Parsons is the only player we’re still comfortable betting on. He had 2.0 sacks in his return to the lineup last week, and has -140 odds to record one this time around. The Texans have allowed the 3rd-most sacks in football, and there’s just no chance Parsons doesn’t find a way to get to his podcast/travel buddy/rival, C.J. Stroud, in the Houston pocket.

Best Bets