No Monday Night Football doubleheader for us this week, but we still have an intriguing matchup between the Chiefs and the Saints, who have been one of the bigger enigmas through the first quarter or so of the campaign. The Chiefs remain unbeaten, but they haven’t exactly been impressive in doing so, winning their four games by a combined 20 points.
We split our picks (3-3) on last week’s MNF doubleheader, so we’ll look to get back in the black here in Week 5.
All odds provided by Betway.
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
| Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) | -250 | -5.5 (-110) | O43.0 (-110) |
| New Orleans Saints (2-2) | +205 | +5.5 (-110) | U43.0 (-110) |
After the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season, the Saints must have been on cloud nine, there were even reports that there was a noticeable drop in crime in New Orleans as the Saints scored 40+ in their first two games. However, Derek Carr and company have crashed back down to earth with a loud thud over the last couple of weeks.
It’s not like they had the brakes beat off of them by anyone, but they lost a couple of ugly ones to the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons, two teams that have shown themselves fallible early in the season.
The most notable tidbit about this game might be that, despite Carr’s familiarity with K.C., having played in the same division as them for nearly a decade when he was a member of the Raiders. He is just 3-14 against the Chiefs all-time, and his 83.0 passer rating overall is his third-worst against any single opponent. His 17 interceptions against the Chiefs are by far his most against any foe, and same goes for the 41 sacks he’s taken at the hands of K.C. defenders. Carr’s teams are 0-5 against the Chiefs since 2020.
It’s also worth noting that on the other side, while he hasn’t exactly been living up to his rep so far in 2024, Patrick Mahomes has been historically dominant against the NFC, but the NFC South in specific. He’s 21-5 against the NFC, and a pristine 6-0 against the NFC South.
The Saints defense has also had its struggles, as it is allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per carry and the 10th-most passing yards overall. Kansas City’s defensive unit is middling against the pass, but they’re allowing the third-fewest yards per rush, and if they can keep that up and make the Saints one-dimensional, their pass-rush (sixth-highest pressure %) can get in Carr’s face.
Sports betting sites aren’t making it easy for us with this 5.5-point spread, as Vegas clearly doesn’t know what to do with this one. However, despite their small margins of victory to start the year, the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS, so we’re going to back them to cover again.
Game Best Bet: Chiefs -5.5 Point Spread (-110)
The Chiefs might be singularly ill-equipped to take advantage of the Saints’ suspect run defense, what with the uncertainty over who’s starting and who will see what type of usage. However, there are some threads we can pull on here. Kareem Hunt was the clear lead dog last week, and it has been suggested by reputable sources that he could start against the Saints.
He had 69 rushing yards in his debut last week, and with NFL betting sites setting his number way down at 43.5 this week, the over feels like a lock. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could be back in the mix, but he hasn’t been in Andy Reid’s good graces for a couple of years now.
The Saints may have a well-ranked rush defense statistically, but going up by 40 in the first half of your first two games tends to skew those numbers a good bit. They gave up 172 on the ground to the Eagles and allowed the Falcons 88 on just 15 carries.
Another fun one we think has a great chance of hitting here is the over on Xavier Worthy’s rushing prop, which is set at the bargain bin price of 2.5 yards. He didn’t have a carry last week, but he had one apiece in Weeks 1 and 2, and he had three in Week 3. Worthy is arguably their top weapon now, so they will find any way they can to get him the ball.
Player Prop Best Bets:
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
