We went 2-2 on our player props for Wild Card weekend, falling just short on both misses. Now that we know a little bit more about how the usage is going to change for some players in the playoffs, we can make the right picks for Divisional weekend. There’s only four games to pick from, but we’ll still find the value wherever those betting sites are hiding it.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 49-27 (+16.19)
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
This has to be one of the most shocking lines on the slate for this weekend. We know Travis Kelce has had a down year, but come on. Have people not seen how he can turn it on at will yet? Even during this down year, he’s gone way over this total in eight of his last 13 games, including his most recent outing on Christmas Day, when he took eight receptions for 84 yards.
Granted, he won’t be seeing coverage as shockingly soft as he saw against the Steelers that day—perhaps a Christmas present from them for the man who’s got everything—but he’s been dominant in the playoffs no matter the coverage, his relationship status, or his recent performances.
Last year, he had 50+ yards in just three of his final eight regular season games. He then went for 71, 76, 115, and 93 in the playoffs. Kelce has gone 13 straight playoff games with at least 70 yards receiving. In fact, he’s gone for 60+ in 18 of his 22 playoff appearances all-time. Say what you will about the man and his lady, but he shows up big when it matters most.
Could anything have been easier to predict than Jahmyr Gibbs exploding when David Montgomery went down? In those three games, Sonic has had 109 and a TD on 23 totes, 117 and a TD on 18 totes, and 139 and three TDs on 23 totes in the regular season finale. The guy earns his nickname every time he carries it.
But now, to the chagrin of Gibbs bettors everywhere, his buddy is unexpectedly back early. Montgomery is off the injury report and will play in this game, but considering it’s been over a month since he’s been on the shelf, we wouldn’t expect a massive workload for him. We can still expect Gibbs to get carries in the high teens rather than the mid-to-low teens that he usually gets when Knuckles is at full strength.
We envision Detroit playing with a lead a lot, which means more looks for Gibbs against this brutal Commanders running defense. It was by far the worst run-stopping unit to make the playoffs, as they allowed the 4th-most rush yards to RBs per game in the regular season. Bucky Irving just took 17 for 77, and that’s the type of game we expect from the Gibber, only a little more efficient.
There was some talk last week about Saquon Barkley’s taking a knee late in the game costing bettors money. It was only the greedy ones, because his line was hovering around 100 yards, and we took it and we hit it. Death, taxes, and Barkley hitting his over.
He’s not quite as automatic as those other two, but considering the whacky lines we’ve seen from NFL betting sites for Barkley this year, the fact that he has hit the over on his rushing yards prop in 14 of 17 games this season is pretty darn close.
This isn’t even the highest line he’s seen this year. He’s had lines of 115.5 and 113.5 prior to this. Guess what? He went for 167 and 124. This is also the same Rams defense that he torched for a godly 255 yards and two TDs in primetime earlier this year. L.A. will prepare for Barkley, but whether they can stop him is another question.
There haven’t been many performances more impressive than what the Ravens did to the Steelers in last week’s game. Total domination. And while Derrick Henry had the gaudy numbers, it was all about Lamar Jackson, who went for a ho-hum 81 yards. However, he actually had 15 carries, his most since Week 1 against the Chiefs. OC Todd Monken is showing he can stick with what’s working.
That’s good news, because Jackson has been running wild lately. He’s gone for 60+ rushing yards in five of his last six, and you know what they say: If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Jackson has also rushed for 54+ yards in six of seven playoff games. You can decide what kind of omen it is that the Bills were the lone team to hold him.
He averages 52.5 rush yards per game against the Bills for his career, which just so happens to be his prop number here. Shocker. In his most recent meetings, he went for 54 on the ground earlier this year and 73 against the Bills back in 2022.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
