NFL Divisional Weekend Best Bets & Betting Odds

Last week we were treated to one of the worst Wild Card weekends in recent memory. The gulf between the top 5-6 teams and the rest of the playoff field really is a chasm. However, those 5-6 teams are going head to head during the Divisional round of these NFL playoffs, so we’re set for some much better action. We went 3-3 last week as the Chargers, Bucs, and Vikings let us down. We expect to bounce back this weekend. We’ve scoured betting sites for the best value bets you can find, so let’s dive in.

NFL Playoffs Best Bets: 3-3

2024 NFL Regular Season Sunday Slate Best Bets: 60-30-1 (+17.68)

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

NFL Divisional Weekend Best Bets & Odds - January 18-19

All odds provided by Betway.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs - Saturday at 4:30PM on ESPN

The spread here is the 2nd-highest the Chiefs have seen this year against any half-decent teams (that’s excluding the Raiders and Panthers). And it does make sense; there won’t be many people outside of Houston betting on the Texans moneyline. However, while the Chiefs win a very high percentage of their games, they don’t generally do it in blowout fashion, especially not this year, and especially not in the playoffs.

K.C. won 15 games in the regular season, but only three of those came by 9+ points. It’s been the same in the playoffs. Since 2020, after they won their first Super Bowl, the Mahomian Chiefs have won 11 playoff games.

9 of those have come in the Divisional round or later, when the quality of the team sees a sharp rise. Only one of those was decided by more than seven points, and that includes a few tight wins against the likes of Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence.

Best Bet: Houston Texans Alternative +11.0 Point Spread (-155)

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions - Saturday at 8PM on Fox

This is another one where we don’t believe the Commanders have much of a chance of winning (though we like them better than Houston), but we also don’t think they’re going to get blown out either. Since Week 1, they have not lost a game by more than eight points. However, the Lions have also been known to demolish teams with no notice, winning six games by 17+ points this year.

The spread feels iffy here, so we’ll look at the over for this one instead. The 55.5 number we’re getting from NFL sportsbooks is a little high, so we’ll buy a couple of points down, but we love the over in this one. Coming into this one, the Lions offense has been on a roll. They’ve scored 31+ points in five straight, and four of those games went over the total. The over is also 3-0 when the Lions play with a rest advantage over their opponent. The Commanders, meanwhile, have hit the over in five of seven games as an underdog. These are both top five scoring offenses to boot.

Best Bet: Alternative Game Total Over 53.5 (-155)

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday at 3PM on NBC

There’s no doubt that the Rams will be dialed in on stopping Saquon Barkley after he gashed them for 255 yards in an earlier meeting this season. But will that matter? Teams already do that every week, and he still goes for 100+ every week. The Rams defense won’t get that California fire emotional boost this time around either.

Without that, we’re not sure how good this team really is. They won last week by harrying Sam Darnold, but they won’t be able to do that with Jalen Hurts standing behind the best offensive line in football. We’re not sure it’s going to be a blowout, but we expect another less-than-exciting yet comfortable win for Philly here. We’ll still buy a couple points down for surprisingly cheap.

Best Bet: Philadelphia Eagles Alternative -3.5 Point Spread (-152)

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills - Sunday at 6:30PM on CBS

The game everyone is waiting for should live up to the hype, even if a lot of these duels usually don’t. We are definitely giving the Ravens in this one, but it’s such a slight edge that we’re not sure we want to risk a bet on either moneyline. Instead, we’ll go with the over.

Baltimore has failed to score 28 points just thrice since Week 2, while Buffalo has scored 30+ in nine of their last 10 full-strength games. Baltimore also has the 2nd-highest over hit percentage in football, having gone over the number in 13 of 18 games.

Best Bet: Game Total Over 51.5 Points (-110)