NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets & Betting Odds

After an uneven 3-3 showing during Wild Card Weekend, we found our stride in the Divisional, putting out a clean 4-for-4 card. And not for the first time this year, mind you. We’ll look to continue our little hot streak here with another shrewd four-play card with bets that offer the best value on the slate offered up by the top Canadian betting apps. Here are best bets for Conference Championship Weekend, featuring the Philadelphia Eagles hosting the Washington Commanders and the Buffalo Bills visiting the Kansas City Chiefs.

NFL Playoffs Best Bets: 7-3 (+1.67)

2024 NFL Regular Season Sunday Slate Best Bets: 60-30-1 (+17.68)

Note: None of our best bets feature odds shorter than -200.

NFL Conference Championship Weekend Best Bets & Odds - January 26

All odds provided by Betway.

Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles - Sunday at 3PM on FOX

Most of the games during this postseason have gone under the total, but the NFC Championship has been fertile ground for big offensive performances over the last decade. Eight of the last 10 NFC Championships have seen 45+ points, and in six of those games, a team exploded for 35+ points. The Washington Commanders have been on a roll lately, scoring 20+ in eight straight, including 30+ in four of their last seven.

The first matchup between these teams ended on 44 points, and the second became a late shootout with nearly 70 points. Washington’s last game nearly reached 80 points, and we believe they’re going to force Jalen Hurts to push the Eagles passing game into second or, god forbid, even third gear. That, plus Saquon Barkley gashing a defense he’s already gashed for 145+ and two TDs twice this season, should mean both teams reach 20 points comfortably. We’re going to buy the line we’re getting from NFL sportsbooks down to 44.5 and take the over at -168 odds.

The Commanders are this year’s Cinderella team, and they’ve been living up to the name in every way. They’ve been underdogs for both of their playoff games and engineered comebacks to win both. They haven’t just covered their last three games as underdogs, they’ve won them all, and they were all against playoff teams.. one of which were these very Eagles.

Since their blowout loss in Week 1, Washington has lost four games by an average of six points. Is that a coincidence, we wonder? Either way, they’re 5-2-1 as the underdog this year, and while we won’t go so far as to bet on them to complete the full upset, we do like them to keep it close. They haven’t lost a game by more than a possession since the start of September, and they won’t start now, so we’re buying the line up to +7.5 at -155 odds.

Best Bets

• Alternative Game Total Points Over 44.5 (-168)
• Washington Commanders Alternative +7.5 Point Spread (-155)

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs - Sunday at 6:30PM on CBS

Since 2021, the Chiefs and Bills have locked horns in the regular and postseason a whopping seven times. That’s nearly the same rate as a division rival. These teams are familiar with one another, but that hasn’t led to low-scoring, cagey affairs. When Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes meet, you can expect a barnburner more often than not. Five of those seven clashes have gone over 50+ points.

That includes all three of their playoff matchups, and all have topped 50 points, averaging 63.7 points per game. Last year’s edition finished on 51 and was considered tame for this rivalry.

Buffalo was able to put up points last week against the best defense in the league over the last few months (Baltimore), and they’ve scored 24+ in 12 straight games where the starters played a full set of snaps. The Chiefs offense, oft-maligned this year, is also averaging just over 26 points a game over the last three weeks with their starters as they kick into playoff gear. We’re taking the over here as long as it stays below 50.

The Chiefs offense settling in all comes down to Patrick Mahomes, of course. While he was quiet against the Texans, he had three TDs against the Steelers in his final regular season game.

As you might have guessed, he’s also been especially good in the playoffs in his career. He has played in 19 playoff games, and he’s thrown more than one touchdown in 13 of those games, including in eight of his last 11, going back to the 2021 playoffs. Mahomes has always relished these dates with the Bills as well: he has thrown 2+ TDs in seven of his eight career meetings with Buffalo. We like that trend to continue here.

Best Bets

• Game Total Points Over 48.5 (-110)
• Patrick Mahomes 2+ TD Passes (-170)