We started 3-for-3 on Divisional Weekend, only for Lamar Jackson to fall just a few yards short. We’re not going to pile on him right now though, 3-1 is still a solid result. We’ll still hope to improve on that this Sunday with the NFL’s final four doing battle in the Conference Championships. Check out our top four value player props for these two gargantuan matchups.
2024 NFL Player Prop Record: 52-28 (+17.92)
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Last week’s 52.5 receiving yards line for Travis Kelce was one of the easiest bets we’ve made all season. If we were true degenerates, we would have bet the house on it. The guy had over 60 yards midway through the second quarter and went on to more than double his line with 117 yards on seven receptions. Online betting sites were bound to have a knee-jerk reaction.
And they did, with his line jumping a whopping 17 yards in just one week. Unprecedented, but honestly, considering the circumstances, understandable. However, unfortunately for them, it’s still a touch too low, so we’re running it back again here in the Conference Championship against the Bills.
Kelce’s playoff dominance has been well-documented at this point, but we’ll break it down one last time just in case there are those with doubts about Father Time or simple dislike of the lady on his arm pushing you to make rash betting decisions. Kelce has gone for 71+ receiving yards in 14 straight playoff games, 10 of which were games of 90+ yards. He hasn’t had less than 70 yards in a postseason game since before COVID hit. Before he and Patrick Mahomes were Super Bowl Champions.
And if you think the Bills have some special formula for him, think again. In three career playoff games against the Bills his lines were 13 receptions for 118 yards and two TDs, 8-96-1, and 5-75-2. This should be another early cover.
We would say we’re throwing caution to the wind regarding the opponent in this matchup, as we have with Saquon Barkley over the last however many weeks in a row, but the truth is, this is the best matchup he could have gotten looking at the 14 rushing defenses that made the postseason this year.
The Commanders allowed the 3rd-most rushing yards per game (137.5) during the regular season. They also allowed the 3rd-highest yards per carry average, at 4.8. They were bad all year, but they were especially bad against Saquon Barkley.
Barkley has had two looks at this group. He had 26 carries for 146 yards and two touchdowns in November, and another 29 carries for 150 yards and two more touchdowns in December. Barkley has also had 124+ rushing yards in six of his last eight games overall, so this number we’re getting from NFL betting sites may seem high, but not for our sweet prince.
Jahmyr Gibbs was getting anything he wanted against this defense last week, but for some reason the Lions and their big brain offense only gave him 14 carries, so he finished with 105 and a loss. Bucky Irving also had a solid game against Washington, taking 17 for 77 in the Wild Card round.
After a quiet couple of weeks there, Brian Robinson Jr. was back in a big way in the Divisional win over the Lions. He took 15 carries for 77 yards, including a couple of trips to pay dirt. Now, the Eagles allowed the 7th-fewest rush yards to RBs at under 79.8 yards a game—but that hasn’t translated to the postseason.
Philly never trailed in their Wild Card win over the Packers, yet Josh Jacobs still took 18 carries for 81 yards. The Eagles trailed for no more than five and a half minutes in the first quarter of their Divisional win against the Rams, but Kyren Williams still had 19 carries for 106 yards.
There are holes in this defense, and teams that have trailed the Eagles, like the Commanders are likely to, were still able to run the ball effectively in these playoffs. Robinson covered this number in 1/2 matchups with the Eagles this year as well as in seven of his last 11 overall.
The most reliable bet this season was on running backs playing against the Carolina Panthers. But since they just missed the playoffs, we’ve had to rely on the next best thing: tight ends that are going up against the Chiefs defense. While it’s one of the best in the league, it does have this little quirk, and we’ve exploited it nearly every single week this season.
Dalton Kincaid is not on a roll whatsoever—he’s only hit this number in two of his last five—but he doesn’t have to be. The Chiefs gave up 70.1 yards per game to TEs during the regular season, the most in the league by a significant margin. And listen, this is no word of a lie: the Chiefs have played 18 games this year, and they have allowed a tight end to hit his receiving props over in 17 of them. That continued in the playoffs, with Dalton Schultz going for 63 yards.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
