NFL Conference Championship Weekend Player Props Betting Odds - January 28
All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
Lamar Jackson (BAL) - Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Lamar Jackson finally has a proper receiving corps for what feels like the first time in his career—and maybe the entire history of the Baltimore Ravens franchise. However, the improved passing attack under Todd Monken hasn’t stopped Jackson from continuing his ground dominance.
The number this week feels a little inflated, but we still feel comfortable with it considering how Jackson ran the ball last week. In their throttling of the Houston Texans, the Ravens had a lot of success on the ground, and a big part of that was Jackson, who popped off for 100 rushing yards on the day.
It made sense considering the Texans had the fifth-highest pressure rate this season, which tends to lead to QBs tucking and running more often than usual. The Chiefs are even better in terms of rushing the passer, finishing second in pressure percentage and sacks this year. If they can flush Jackson out of the pocket a few times here, we’re golden.
Kansas City also gave up the second-most rushing yards to QBs during the regular season, and that struggle has continued into the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa didn’t rush for more than 15 yards all year, but he found room for 25 against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round. And then there was Josh Allen’s 72-yard performance last week.
Jackson has also averaged 75.8 rush yards per game against K.C. during his career, the fifth-highest number against any opponent he’s played multiple times. With speedy linebacker Willie Gay Jr. (who would have been the top candidate to spy Jackson) questionable for this one, we feel even more confident.
Travis Kelce (KC) - Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Baltimore Ravens
He doesn’t quite look like the Travis Kelce we’ve come to expect over the past decade, but the 34-year-old still has some gas left in the tank. He’s not going to go hard for every play and every drive, but he knows when his team needs him.
The Ravens seem set up to stop him, what with athletic and physical safety Kyle Hamilton and two Pro Bowl middle linebackers, but that’s never stopped Kelce before. He may have his slow days, but he always shows up in the postseason when it matters most.
He hit the under on his receiving yards prop in 10 of 15 games during the regular season, but he hit the over in both of Kansas City’s playoff games, averaging 73 yards in the process. He’s a bit of a ringer now, and the Conference Championship is definitely the time to bring in a ringer if you’ve got one.
Kelce surpassed 65 receiving yards in just five of his first nine playoff games, but since 2021, he hasn’t had fewer than 71 in a single outing. The guy’s a postseason machine, and with Patrick Mahomes likely to be under the cosh from Baltimore’s top-ranked pass rush, he’ll be looking for his reliable safety valve early and often.
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) - Over 23.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. San Francisco 49ers
People called the Lions crazy for drafting what many thought was a scat back with a top 12 pick, but boy, has it worked out in their favor. Jahmyr Gibbs has been one of the most explosive and efficient backs in the league, and that has continued in the playoffs.
While Gibbs continues to see his regular complement of 8-15 rushes a game, which has been his range for all but four contests this year, his role in the passing game has increased in the postseason.
Gibbs was a major weapon running routes out of the backfield early in the campaign, averaging 4.6 receptions during that early nine-game stretch. But then, he disappeared for a little bit, grabbing just 1.8 balls over the final six games of the regular season.
However, he’s been back in the passing game plan for the playoffs, grabbing four receptions in both postseason games and averaging 41.5 receiving yards while doing so. San Francisco has been a bit shaky stopping receiving backs all year, allowing the eighth most receiving yards to RBs this season.
With bonafide stud tight end Sam LaPorta taking up a lot of attention from San Francisco’s All-World middle linebacker Fred Warner, Gibbs should be able to find a lot of joy in Santa Clara on Sunday.
George Kittle (SF) - Over 60.5 Receiving Yards (-110) vs. Detroit Lions
It was only a matter of time before George Kittle reminded us of his superstar status. After a couple of down years, he was back this season with his first 1,000-yard campaign since 2019. And the good news is, he’s been especially good of late.
After hitting the under in four of his first six games, Kittle has hit the over in nine of his last 11 games, averaging 80.5 receiving yards per game over that monster span.
He was at his swashbuckling best last week, rumbling for 81 yards and a touchdown while breaking tackles all over the place. Not that he needs help to keep the good times rolling, but the Detroit Lions have been one of the worst teams against tight ends this season, giving up the eighth-most receiving yards to the position.
That issue reared its ugly head for the Lions last week when Tampa Bay’s Cade Otton repeatedly burned them for 65 yards, just his third 50+ yard performance of the year. Detroit’s strength is in stopping the run, so their linebackers aren’t the best in the coverage realm. Kittle is going to be eating Alex Anzalone’s lunch all night.
