The Jacksonville Jaguars will look to make it four straight wins when they head down to the Big Easy to take on the floundering New Orleans Saints at the Superdome in Week 7 on Thursday Night Football.
Despite the seemingly opposite directions in which these teams are moving, this one is essentially being billed as a pick ‘em or toss up, with the Saints coming in as the ever so slight moneyline favorites on most NFL sportsbooks.
The Jacksonville Jaguars come into this one on the back of a solid 37-20 divisional win against the struggling Indianapolis Colts. The New Orleans Saints, meanwhile, return home after having lost to the Houston Texans 20-13 in Houston in Week 6. All odds provided by Sports Interaction.
| Team | Moneyline | Point Spread | Total |
| New Orleans Saints | -115 | -1.0 (-110) | O39.5 (-110) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -105 | +1.0 (-110) | U39.5 (-110) |
The Jacksonville Jaguars won a divisional game in Week 1, then they lost a tight one to the Chiefs before getting demolished by rookie C.J. Stroud and his Houston Texans in Week 3. After that Houston loss, many questions began to surface about the Jags, but they’ve seemingly found their rhythm.
They bounced back with two wins in their second home in London, including one of the more surprising upsets of the young 2023 season against the Buffalo Bills in Week 5. They won their third straight against the Colts in Week 6, giving them a seemingly solid springboard from which to launch a victorious campaign against these Saints.
New Orleans, for their part, remains a bit of an enigma. They started the season 2-0 but have since lost three of four, including losses to mediocre outfits like the Packers and Buccaneers. They sit at 3-3, but the teams that they’ve beaten have combined for just three wins so far this season.
The return of running back Alvin Kamara has been a welcome sight, but they still rank near the bottom of the league in terms of yards per carry, with just 3.5. They’re clearly not a great running team, but they haven’t exactly been great through the air either.
Derek Carr is dealing with the fifth offensive coordinator of his career, and if history is any indication, this first year for him in Pete Carmichael’s offense will be one that sees the QB go through some growing pains. He’s got some great weapons in Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and rookie Rashid Shaheed, but the chemistry just isn’t there yet.
Both defenses are in the top 10 when it comes to rushing yards allowed, but the passing defense is where this game could really turn. While the Saints allow the sixth-fewest passing yards, the Jags have allowed more passing yards than any other team in the league. This could be a great spot for Carr to find his footing and take advantage of that deficiency.
The moneyline odds are pretty close to even, so considering the Saints’ home field advantage, the fact that the Jaguars can’t stop the pass to save their lives, and the likelihood that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence is going to be either limited or absent from the game, we’re rolling with New Orleans at -115 moneyline odds.
When it comes to the total, the Saints haven’t had a game go over the 39.5 point total yet, and we expect that to continue. We’ve seen some surprisingly high scores on TNF this year, but generally, Thursday night is a time for low-scoring affairs, and considering Lawrence will probably be hampered, the under on the 39.5 point total looks good at -110 odds.
The Jaguars are one of the best teams in the league in terms of clogging up running holes, allowing the fourth-fewest rushing yards to running backs in the NFL at just 56.8 per game. However, they have been very susceptible to running backs catching passes out of the backfield.
They’ve allowed running backs to snag 39 balls this season, third-most in the NFL. And, they just so happen to be going up against one of the best pass-catching backs in the league in Alvin Kamara. Kamara has seen 25 targets through three games and has topped 30 yards in two of three appearances. We’d love to bet his receptions prop, but since it remains unavailable, we’ll roll with the over on his receiving yards prop, which is currently at 29.5 yards and -118 odds. If you find his receptions prop at five or below, get on it expeditiously.
As we mentioned, the Jags can’t stop the pass to save their lives, so we also like Saints top wideout Chris Olave to have a productive evening. He has topped 85 yards in four of his six games, but in those other two games, he had just 16 combined yards. We’re going to go out on a limb and say that those stinkers were the outliers and roll with the over on his 62.5 yards prop at -115.
Alex is a recent graduate of Ryerson's Sport Media program in 2019 and has been contributing to BettingTop10 since 2020. He has worked in the field of sports and sports betting for several years, including writing for theScore and daily fantasy sports website FantasyPros as one of their lead NBA news writers. A dedicated sports fan and experienced sports bettor, Alex has the knowledge to provide you with the best betting advice and the sneakiest props no matter what the sport may be.
