NBA Thursday March 6th - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Philadelphia 76ers Alternative +17.0 Point Spread @ BOS (-180)
The Celtics may have one of the best records in real life, but when it comes to this point spread fantasy land we live in, they’re one of the worst teams in the league, with a 27-34-1 ATS record this year. The problem is, they’re given double-digit spreads nearly every night. They’re one of the best teams in the league, but they don’t blow teams out when they’re supposed to.
With a -14.0 point spread for this game against Philly, this is definitely one of those games they’re supposed to cruise through. Boston is 26-32-1 ATS as a favorite and 13-18 ATS as the home favorite. However, when the spreads balloon as much as betting sites are blowing this one up on Thursday, Celtics backers don’t fare well. They are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games when they’re favored by double-digits, and 9-19 since early November.
Speaking of terrible teams against the spread, the 76ers have the single-worst spread record in the league, at 21-38-2. That’s why we wouldn’t dream of buying their spread straight up. They don’t often cover, but they’re usually pretty close. They’re not blown out by 20+ very often.
18 of their last 21 losses have come by 17 points or less. So far this year, Philly has lost by 20, by 8, and won by four against these Celtics. As we mentioned, we’re buying up a few points though, just to play it safe. These are the 76ers after all.
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline vs. NYK (-160)
As the featured game on TNT on Thursday night will be pitting LeBron James’ Lakers against the massive market of the New York Knicks, we think he and his crew are going to come to play. LeBron has had success against a lot of teams, but the Knicks are one of the ones he’s dominated the most.
It’s no “LeBronto”, but his .717 winning percentage (43-17) against New York is his 4th-best against any opponent. The Lakers are just ahead, at .733. LeBron likes to play the big market teams. Not to mention that the Lakers are on a seven-game winning streak that started following the first game back from the All-Star Break. They are 17-3 in their last 20 games straight up. At 24-7, they also have the 3rd-best home record in the league.
The Knicks, meanwhile, are just 3-6 in the few games where they’ve come in as an underdog according to NBA betting sites. The last time these two teams met, the Lakers won by 16, and they’re even hotter now than they were during that game a few weeks ago. This is also the first of a grueling five-game West Coast trip for the Knicks, who are 10-10 ATS against the West this year. The King will continue his Knicks dominance on TNT.
Tyrese Haliburton 10+ Assists @ ATL (-145)
This matchup features two of the best passers in the NBA in Indiana’s Tyrese Haliburton and Atlanta’s Trae Young. Both guys have put up assist double-doubles in three straight games coming into this one. However, Young has been putting up such gaudy numbers that his odds for 10 dimes are way up around -250. Haliburton—whose streak of games with 10+ assists is currently at six—meanwhile, is offering much more reasonable odds, at -145.
He also has the better matchup here. It could very well be argued that the Hawks have the worst defense in the Association. Specifically for our purposes, they allow 28.6 assists per game, which is 6th most in the NBA. But even overall, they allow the 3rd-most points (119.7), the 2nd-highest shooting percentage (48.3), and the 3rd-highest three-point shooting percentage (37.2). Haliburton and the rest of Indiana’s offense should roll.
ATL-IND Alternative Game Total Points Over 244.0 (-150)
We partially explained this one in the Haliburton section: Atlanta simply can’t stop anybody. They have allowed six of their last eight opponents to put up 125+ points on them, and as we mentioned earlier, they let them do so with ruthless efficiency. It’s also worth noting that Atlanta hits overs at 59.5 percent rate this year, good for 4th-best in basketball. Indiana’s top 10 offense will be licking their chops.
Atlanta games see a lot of points more often than not, but specifically so when the game in question has a total of 240+ points. The over is 13-3 when the total is at or above that number this year, as it is for this one. That trend has been even more reliable recently: it’s been 11 straight such games that have gone over, with the last under coming way back in late November. Expect a shootout in the ATL.
