NBA Monday February 20th - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Atlanta Hawks Moneyline vs. ORL (+100)
The Orlando Magic have been a great surprise this year. That young core is going to be fun for a long time. But that’s just what it is: young. The pressure of expectation still gets to them, which is probably why they’re one of just four teams in the NBA who have lost more games than they’ve won straight up when they come into the game as road favorites (6-7).
That bodes well for one of our favorite types of wagers: home dogs. The best team in that category this season just so happens to be the Hawks, who are 8-3 ATS when they’re disrespected by oddsmakers in their building. Atlanta is also very good at winning games outright when they are underdogs. Their 16-19 SU record as an underdog this year is 4th best among teams with 10+ games as dogs.
Atlanta’s 6-2 SU record against fellow division foes, which the Magic are, is 6th-best in the NBA. The Hawks came into a previous matchup between these teams just before the ASB as +6.5 point underdogs, and they pulled out a six-point win of their own. We like them to get the upset here again.
Memphis Grizzlies Moneyline @ IND (-140)
The Grizzlies are a really good team, but that’s especially true when they play teams from the weaker East. They have lost just one game to a team from that conference since November 4. Since then, they are 13-1 in non-conference games. They are 16-4 SU, but also 16-4 ATS, which is the best non-conference record in the league.
And that run includes wins against the cream of the crop over there. Milwaukee, Boston, and Indiana were all on that hit list. And that last one is in the Grizzlies’ sights once again. The Pacers are home dogs, but in this case, that might actually be a bad thing. Memphis is the best team in the league as a road favorite, posting an 8-3 ATS mark (9-2 SU). When Memphis is the favorite, they are 28-7 this year. That’s an 80 percent success rate at -140 from most Canadian betting sites, and that’s more than good enough for us.
Giannis Antetokounmpo 30+ Points (-140)
Player rivalries may be becoming a thing of the past, but there are a few that still hold onto the old ways. One of those is Giannis Antetokounmpo. And his beef is with the Beardo, James Harden. Back in February of 2020, Harden chirped the Greek Freak by essentially saying that his style of play required no skill. He may fein indifference, but the numbers indicate the big man took that to heart.
Discounting Giannis’ rookie year, the pair faced off 12 times before the Harden comment. In those games, Giannis averaged just over 26 points. Pretty good already. However, since then, they have tangled 13 times (including playoffs), and the Greek Freak has averaged 33.3 points. He topped 30+ in 12 of those games, including the last four in a row.
Giannis is coming off a calf injury, but we believe he’ll play, and when he plays, he’s not playing on any minute restrictions. Antetokounmpo had scored 30+ in five straight games prior to his injury, so we expect him to keep that streak alive.
DEN-CHA Alternative Game Total Points Under 230.5 (-140)
The Hornets, despite their terrible record, actually have a decent defense. They allow the 10th-fewest points per game (111.8) and the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage (34.0). No team has hit more unders than Charlotte’s 34 this year, and they hit at an even higher rate when Charlotte is an underdog like they are here (68.1 percent). That’s especially true when they’ve been big underdogs lately: nine of their last 12 games as double-digit dogs have gone under.
The under has also hit in 11 of 16 games Charlotte has played against the West, including a 107-104 loss to this same Nuggets team on the first day of February. That game’s line was set at 226.5 and it still went under by 15 points. This game’s total is set at 228.5. Denver’s offense is nuts with Nikola Jokic at the hub, but the Hornets were able to slow them with their defense and sluggish 24th-ranked pace.
To put a cherry on top: the under is 8-1 when the Hornets play on no rest, and it’s 3-0 when Denver plays on 4+ days of rest. We’ll still buy up a couple points from our NBA betting sites, but this one feels like a lock.
