NBA Monday February 13th - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Los Angeles Clippers -7.5 Point Spread @ UTA (-110)
The Utah Jazz are in the conversation for the worst team in the league this year, and they’re probably pretty chuffed about that. They have lost 12 of their last 15 games, and seem pretty focused on tanking for a top pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. That’s why their big win over the Lakers last night was such a welcome one. They have only won back-to-back games twice this year and are 2-10 straight up after a win.
They are also 4-7 ATS in their last 11, and they’ve specifically struggled when they’re big underdogs. Including last night’s upset of the Lakers, they are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as a dog of 7+ points, and 14-22 ATS against the West. The cherry on top for them is that they’re also a bottom five team when they play on no rest, posting a 2-6 ATS mark in those situations.
L.A. has been excellent against bad teams this year, going 9-2 ATS when favored by 7+ points since mid-November. The Clippers have also played the Jazz three times already this year. Each time, they were favored by 7.5 or more, and each time they won by double-digits. This one feels so good that we won’t even buy any points down on the spread we’re getting from NBA betting sites.
Dallas Mavericks Moneyline vs. MIA (+105)
In a rare move, the NBA had every single team in action on Wednesday night, which means all 10 teams scheduled to take the floor again on a back-to-back on Thursday night will be playing on no rest. That’s fine by the Mavericks, who have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in the back half of a back-to-back. Those two losses also came by a combined seven points, so even when they lose, they lose tight.
Miami, on the other hand, is coming off an embarrassing loss at home in which they were outscored 32-8 in the fourth quarter. Jimmy Butler hasn’t played for a while, but his absence is clearly being felt on South Beach now that he’s gone officially. They have lost three straight now and have covered the spread just once in their last seven. The Mavs may not have Anthony Davis or Luka Doncic, but they are handling the post-deadline slate with aplomb.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 32.5 Points (-105)
This sentiment may be dissipating in some corners of the league, but for some big-time players it’s still about making big-time plays in big-time matchups. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the latter. Anthony Edwards is one of his peers in this next-up generation, and SGA clearly loves to play Ant-Man.
The Thunder MVP candidate has scored 32+ points in eight straight games against Edwards, including a 40-ball in the most recent meeting. SGA has averaged 34.5 points in those contests. After a 10-for-33 night on Wednesday, the over on Edwards’ 21.5 points prop could be a decent shout too.
SGA, meanwhile, put on another show last night. He finished with 32 but also scored or assisted on 13 of 15 points to open the 4th quarter and spark a 32-8 frame for OKC that earned them the comeback win over Miami. SGA has put up 32+ in six of his last nine games on the road, so we like the over here. If you can find odds around -150 for him to go for 30+, that would be the real lock, though that value is unlikely.
HOU-GSW Alternative Game Total Points Under 223.5
It might surprise some, but this is actually a meeting between two of the best defenses in the NBA, based on points allowed per game at least. The Rockets are 6th, at just 108.7, while the Warriors are 10th, at 111.9. Houston is especially good, as they also sit top five in field goal percentage allowed and allow the 2nd-fewest three-pointers per game (12.3).
The Warriors have had a little run of overs recently, but neither they nor the Rockets are generally high-scoring teams; both sit in the bottom half for points per game. Houston has also been particularly stingy at home, where the total has gone under 224 in seven of their last 10 outings. They also don’t often have bad defensive nights twice in a row: they have allowed back-to-back opponents to eclipse 110 points just once in their last 13 games.
