NBA Sunday March 2 - Best Bets & Betting Odds
All odds provided by Betway.
Orlando Magic Alternative -5.5 Point Spread vs. TOR (-140)
The Orlando Magic are coming off of back-to-back rough home defeats. They are more than due for a bounce back night, and the flailing Raptors are the perfect opponent to help them do that. Toronto is a fun, young team, but they are still 18-42, including a 2-8 mark in their last 10.
This is a get-right game for the Magic, and it’s in a spot they’re more comfortable in. Orlando has not fared well against the tougher competition this year, as they’ve gone 8-17-1 ATS as the underdog. Meanwhile, they are 20-15 ATS as the favorite.
They’re even better when they come into a home game as the favorite. Their 14-7 ATS mark in that scenario ranks 3rd-best in the NBA. The bigger the favorite they are, the better they are too: they are 10-5 ATS when they’re favored by 6+ points like they are here (6.5).
Surprisingly, Toronto is actually worse against the East than the West this season, which is a good sign for our pick as well. The Raps have been a great team ATS this year, but they’ve been letting it go a bit lately, dropping four of their last six against the spread. We’ll buy a point for the Magic here in a prime bounce back spot at home.
Los Angeles Lakers Moneyline vs. LAC (-125)
This will be the second time the Lakers take on the Clippers in three nights. On Friday, the Lakers squeaked out a close one 106-102 at Crypto.com Arena. LeBron James and Co. have now won five straight and eight of 10. They will be at home again on Sunday evening, and that’s exactly where we want them: At 22-7, the Lakers have the 3rd-best home record in the NBA.
They win at home over 75 percent of the time, and sports betting sites are essentially giving us their moneyline at even odds here against a team that’s below them in the standings. The Clippers are good, and the game the other night was close, but these odds are strange. We won’t overthink it though. Just know, this pick is contingent on all the big players suiting up.
The Clippers are only 13-17 on the road, and they are 9-19 as an underdog. The Clips also haven’t won a game where they weren’t favored by at least 3.5 points since December 23. That’s almost two and a half months. We’re rolling with the purple and gold here.
MIA-NYK Alternative Game Total Points Over 221.0 (-140)
No one hits the over at a higher rate in their own arena than these Miami Heat. They lead the NBA with a 17-8 over record when they play in Miami. That’s nearly 70 percent, as they boost their offensive game significantly at the Kaseya Center, scoring 113.0 in their gym compared to 108.2 on the road.
Six of the eight games where they’ve been home dogs have gone over the total, and the Knicks, for their part, hit the over at a clip just under 60 percent when they’re on the road. In fact, the Knicks are used to much higher totals than the 223.0 number we got for this matchup: 13 of their last 14 games have blown this total away. Five of Miami’s last six have eclipsed this total as well, but we’ll still buy a point or two just to be safe.
LeBron James 25+ Points vs. LAC (-125)
These odds are not set in stone, so this is just an estimation. We would still take this prop if it rises to 26. LeBron James has been on a roll since the arrival of Luka Doncic, just like his Lakers. The ageless one has scored 25+ in all six games since the All-Star Break, averaging 29.8 points over that span.
The big thing here for us, however, is the LeBron vs. Kawhi Leonard of it all. The Klaw used to have LeBron’s number. Not the case anymore. LeBron and the Lakers have won five of the last six games where both players participated. The King has been specifically good. He’s currently riding a streak of eight straight matchups with Leonard with at least 25 points, averaging 31.5 points during that run.
